tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post1315746685747297341..comments2023-10-20T21:32:41.646+11:00Comments on Truth Seeker: Updated WA Senate BTL flowsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-8992200417349979682013-10-01T14:50:12.316+10:002013-10-01T14:50:12.316+10:00Have you factored in the segmentation distribution...Have you factored in the segmentation distribution and the method of calculating the surplus transfer value? This can add over 10,00 votes to a candidates total. IN Victoria 2007 the distortion as a result of the Surplus Transfer value was eqiv. to 70,000 votes <br /><br />In QLD 2007 segmentation resulted in the wrong candidate being elected. Try recounting the QLD vote excluding all by the last seven candidates remaining (3 ALP, 3 LNP and 1 GRN). This simulates a reiterative final count. <br /><br />Votes for excluded candidates redistributed as if the excluded candidate(s) had not stood<br /><br />Does not matter which system of calculating the surplus transfer value is used. The Greens should have been elected to the QL:D Senate in 2007<br /><br />IN 2010 the method of segmentation could give the Sports/Greens parties the edge. We will know when the AEC finally published the BTL preference data. In 2010 it took them months., This time i think it will be quicker<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-71430039206467703852013-09-30T13:36:33.011+10:002013-09-30T13:36:33.011+10:00I've seen articles from a few days ago giving ...I've seen articles from a few days ago giving the button press time as 11 am (WA time) Wednesday.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-59868399121774968472013-09-30T07:42:17.297+10:002013-09-30T07:42:17.297+10:00The point of estimating preference flows is to del...The point of estimating preference flows is to deliberately ignore the submitted group tickets. In the case of AI I'm estimating percentages based on known preference flows in Tasmania. The margins of error are high for some of these estimated flows, but these point estimates certainly represent my best guess based on actual data. Truth Seekerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05272077261033925542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-10728076871453939292013-09-30T07:30:05.776+10:002013-09-30T07:30:05.776+10:00Thanks Truthseeker. I guess it is really hard to m...Thanks Truthseeker. I guess it is really hard to model. One thing I notice is that you have the Christians getting much more of the BTL votes for the Aust independants than the Shooters. However as we know the Independants card preferences the Shooters. This seems to make a big difference in your model...your thoughts? I understand that people voting below the line are implicitly rejecting the card but even still.....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-8016792038572682662013-09-30T00:50:22.820+10:002013-09-30T00:50:22.820+10:00Yes, too hard to model. When doing a 10 party pref...Yes, too hard to model. When doing a 10 party preferred analysis, it is not the whole "least worst" party that you often find with 2PP - the average preference number that defines the preferred party is 4.1. So, it is usually the 2nd preferred party, or often the 3rd preferred party.<br />If SFP have a member of parliament who is even half popular, then it would help people think "I'm putting SFP 2nd".<br /><br />Still - impossible to quantitatively model, so I can't include it in my analysis. But it may explain an element of variation in the post-count analysis, if such variance exists.Truth Seekerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05272077261033925542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-91065695957872194902013-09-30T00:37:08.816+10:002013-09-30T00:37:08.816+10:00Would the Shooter and Fisher party having a MLC in...Would the Shooter and Fisher party having a MLC in the state parliament have any impact on BTL preference flow? I guess it would be too hard to model.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com