tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post243546397561139967..comments2023-10-20T21:32:41.646+11:00Comments on Truth Seeker: Senate results - 10pm updateUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-77254555774783343532013-09-18T23:46:33.851+10:002013-09-18T23:46:33.851+10:00Hi Graham, I have just Fact Checked this statement...Hi Graham, I have just Fact Checked this statement and given RUA prefs to FF immediately. Sure, Danny Nialliah was a former FF candidate, but he has certainly made public statements of an interesting nature in the last couple of years. I'm not aware of any particular falling out.<br /><br />My model shows that this scenario results in the following elected candidates:<br />2 LNP<br />2 ALP<br />1 GRN<br />+<br />89% LNP<br />6% AMEP<br />5% FF<br /><br />So, I think the only thing RUA prefs could have done was elected Helen Kroger instead of the Ricky Muir the Motoring Enthusiast.Truth Seekerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05272077261033925542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-56882643364931490592013-09-18T11:02:27.312+10:002013-09-18T11:02:27.312+10:00Family First would have won in Victoria if Rise Up...Family First would have won in Victoria if Rise Up had preferenced them higher. It is interesting they didn't since the Rise Up candidate is a former Family First candidate.Grahamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01320298282537834217noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-86144931046520770692013-09-18T01:51:43.862+10:002013-09-18T01:51:43.862+10:00I have updated Tas here:
http://kevinbonham.blogs...I have updated Tas here:<br /><br />http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/2013-federal-election-post-counting.html<br /><br />The article is getting so long and complex I have placed a summary at the start of it. <br /><br />Today I have looked at likely BTLs as it seems that the unapportioned are now exclusively or mostly BTL. I have also looked at the complexity of the BTLs that affect PUP and it all gets incredibly messy. An important issue here is that Labor BTLs are not of uniform value because their value at the time of the exclusion of Thorp depends on whether they have been through one or both of the Brown or Bilyk surpluses. Those going through the Bilyk surplus are much reduced in value, those going through the Brown surplus are worth about half a vote, but those that were 1 Thorp or 1 Dowling are worth a full vote when they leave Thorp. And there's a lot of those, so that's thousands of votes worth - except that they have to go to Lib or LDP ahead of both Green and PUP to "leak"; I'm not sure that many will.<br /><br />There is also severe oddness with the Pirate Party whose preferences get diddled by Inclusive Gregory and by being absorbed in a mostly hostile surplus. <br /><br />And Family First may be able to get over Sex (with respect to Mr Madden's history, pun unintended) if they can get a few hundred ATLs closer. They just don't look like doing it though, they've been making no inroads since I mentioned them.<br /><br />Can't pick it between Lib and PUP for the main chance; was leaning to PUP again a bit before this evening's crunching.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.com