tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post5008061211847605593..comments2023-10-20T21:32:41.646+11:00Comments on Truth Seeker: WA Senate update - 61% countedUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-83154212953294113302013-09-12T23:17:59.984+10:002013-09-12T23:17:59.984+10:00Yes, i agree it's unlikelyYes, i agree it's unlikelyTruth Seekerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05272077261033925542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-32354160153159564352013-09-11T22:04:03.420+10:002013-09-11T22:04:03.420+10:00Actually - I had a look at the WA 2010 results and...Actually - I had a look at the WA 2010 results and found that the other vote types were actually lower than the ordinary vote for the ALP. Also - the ALP would need to get about 31-32% of the REMAINING votes left to be counted to get up to 2 quotas, compared to the 27% it's getting at the moment - an increase of 15-20% over its current rate. This leads me to think that it's pretty unlikely that they will reach 2 quotas.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-91400195124660676842013-09-09T21:55:28.538+10:002013-09-09T21:55:28.538+10:00One thing - the current totals do not appear to in...One thing - the current totals do not appear to include postal and pre-poll votes yet. I would expect the postals in particular to favour the major parties and therefore I wonder if the ALP vote could rise up to two quotas, changing the game completely. Is it possible to tweak the variability in your model to bias the weighting towards the majors in the remaining votes?<br /><br />(My reasoning is this: the majors both run campaigns to get people to apply for postal votes. Both postal and pre-poll votes require some degree of planning ahead. I can't imagine the young bogans I overheard laughing about how funny it was that they could vote for the HEMP party having the forethought to do either.) Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-70542990351257039822013-09-08T13:23:17.836+10:002013-09-08T13:23:17.836+10:00Assume the PUP percentage is high as they effectiv...Assume the PUP percentage is high as they effectively harvest SPORT votes in the event SPORT goes out in the early counts (current ABC calculator shows them twice getting to 2nd last on the exclusion count).<br /><br />And then LDP if both PUP and SPORT are excluded.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-74515595022140281292013-09-08T08:22:43.736+10:002013-09-08T08:22:43.736+10:00Yes that's what my model effectively does. It ...Yes that's what my model effectively does. It varies the vote of micro parties by +/-15% of their primary vote, and of major parties by 4%.<br /><br />These ranges are fairly large - this is deliberate. If a candidate is deemed by the model to be 100% likely it is indeed very likely and no amount of minor variation will affect this.<br /><br />In regards this scenario you refer to, this is why my model does not give 100% likelihood for Sport.Truth Seekerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05272077261033925542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-23253225310490944482013-09-08T07:55:29.715+10:002013-09-08T07:55:29.715+10:00+Xenophon in SA.+Xenophon in SA.Ben Avelingnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-56887233076297392632013-09-08T07:48:32.699+10:002013-09-08T07:48:32.699+10:00Hi,
Is the following a fair summary of your curre...Hi,<br /><br />Is the following a fair summary of your current prediction?<br /><br />Regards, Ben<br /><br />ALP NSW 2<br />ALP QLD 1<br />ALP QLD 80%<br />ALP SA 1<br />ALP SA 74%<br />ALP TAS 2<br />ALP VIC 2<br />ALP WA 1<br />ALP WA 21%<br /><br />DEM NSW 5.9%<br /><br />FF QLD 27%<br />FF SA 40%<br />FF TAS 0.1%<br />FF VIC 1.9%<br /><br />GRN NSW 6.8%<br />GRN QLD 40%<br />GRN SA 50%<br />GRN TAS 1<br />GRN VIC 1<br />GRN WA 80%<br /><br />KAP QLD 1%<br /><br />LDP NSW 1<br />LDP WA 10%<br /><br />LNP NSW 2<br />LNP NSW 80.5%<br />LNP QLD 2<br />LNP QLD 50%<br />LNP TAS 2<br />LNP TAS 7%<br />LNP VIC 1.8%<br />LNP VIC 2<br />LNP WA 3<br /><br />Motoring Enthusiast Party VIC 96%<br /><br />No Carbon Tax SA 31%<br /><br />PUP NSW 0.6%<br />PUP QLD 96%<br />PUP SA 5%<br />PUP WA 38%<br /><br />Palmer United TAS 81%<br /><br />SFP NSW 6.2%<br /><br />SPORT WA 52%<br /><br />SXP TAS 11%<br /><br />Shooters TAS 0.4%<br /><br />Ben Avelingnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-53480683776827187382013-09-08T06:45:52.303+10:002013-09-08T06:45:52.303+10:00The Sport Party is almost eliminated twice - at co...The Sport Party is almost eliminated twice - at count 9 ahead by 0.03% and at count 12 by 0.02%.<br />Would it be possible to simulate by varying the Rise Up and Climate Sceptic votes?Grahamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01320298282537834217noreply@blogger.com