tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post5821545197639648382..comments2023-10-20T21:32:41.646+11:00Comments on Truth Seeker: Senate update - 20-9-13 - Part 2 - NSWUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-76885247385192342912013-09-21T23:04:03.154+10:002013-09-21T23:04:03.154+10:00Don't the Dems do pretty well on BTLs from oth...Don't the Dems do pretty well on BTLs from other parties due to their reputation as centrists? I'm wondering if "stolen" BTLs (that is, BTLs from parties which didn't preference the party ATL) could play a major role.<br /><br />I think that stolen BTLs, particularly from the Pirate Party, could make the Sex-Labor critical point in TAS a lot closer (though I don't know if the Sex Party will have enough of a lead to win). This is impossible to model because neither party has contested TAS before, but it would be interesting to see how BTLs have flowed to the Dems from non-preferencing parties in the past in NSW.Christopher Burgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18352344079470009077noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-55105811969643831482013-09-21T17:12:43.486+10:002013-09-21T17:12:43.486+10:00These numbers were correct as of last night, and I...These numbers were correct as of last night, and I have reconfirmed my calculations today. The problem is that the AEC "flipped" approx 500 votes from Bullet to Liberal. See my post today.<br /><br />All such data is correct at time of publication, and I cannot account for AEC errors that will appear from time to time.<br /><br />(I get 240, 220, 1100 for the three margins now - the 500 vote flip made a very big difference! I wonder if there's any more flips coming?)Truth Seekerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05272077261033925542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-37556463316773852202013-09-21T16:27:51.470+10:002013-09-21T16:27:51.470+10:00I can't make sense of your figures. I have Fam...I can't make sense of your figures. I have Family Frist ahead of Bullet Train by 276 votes, Animal justice leading Dems by 241 votes, HEMP leading AMEP by 153 and SEX leading Dems by 987 votes on current count.John Chttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13332466098289647643noreply@blogger.com