tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post8792213355045492097..comments2023-10-20T21:32:41.646+11:00Comments on Truth Seeker: Tasmanian Senate - TruthSeeker forecastsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-77750840321508955422013-09-07T11:14:48.879+10:002013-09-07T11:14:48.879+10:00Tas has a strong history of BTL Senate votes but t...Tas has a strong history of BTL Senate votes but they've never had anywhere near 54 candidates. It's one thing to mark 20 preferences; it's an entirely different thing to mark at least 49.<br /><br />We should see a far lower BTL percentage (I'd suggest probably in the 5-10% range) and a far higher informality rate than has been the case in the past. My guess is that this would hurt the Greens, who've benefited from Labor voter ticket splitting in the past (of course, they had Bob Brown in the past).<br /><br />Kevin Bonham's blog post has apparently been making the rounds and it's possible that could influence people to reconsider voting below the line. It's also likely to benefit the Sex Party, as they're the only ATL ticket that does not have a shot of electing Family First. My calculations suggest that the Sex Party will win a seat with a primary vote of 2.3% if the Liberals are under 40% (likely) and Labor+Greens are at 48% or higher (less likely but absolutely possible).Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17427428602391891510noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-45923561081927865862013-09-05T22:40:54.979+10:002013-09-05T22:40:54.979+10:001.1%, or a range from 0.55% to 1.65%. I think LDP ...1.1%, or a range from 0.55% to 1.65%. I think LDP would be newer for Tasmanians, who have sensibly given low votes to the other name-confusing party - DLP. The LDP doesn't trouble the scorer in Tasmania in any of my modelling.Truth Seekerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05272077261033925542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-79923732408393050452013-09-05T22:38:42.004+10:002013-09-05T22:38:42.004+10:00"like""like"Truth Seekerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05272077261033925542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-71798159796996030312013-09-05T22:37:58.901+10:002013-09-05T22:37:58.901+10:00What % did you give the LDP?What % did you give the LDP?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13177042158377867688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-7323571042837270252013-09-05T22:37:42.855+10:002013-09-05T22:37:42.855+10:00If you guys are still visiting the site, I'll ...If you guys are still visiting the site, I'll consider running it post election with updates, based on my Monte Carlo simulations.<br /><br />And Tas has a stronger history of BTL voting, owing to its State voting system... If anything, this would tend to favour a 2-3-1 split over a harvesting miracle by FF or SXP.Truth Seekerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05272077261033925542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-90758750530328120392013-09-05T22:31:57.971+10:002013-09-05T22:31:57.971+10:00I have given 1.64 to Shooters and fishers, and 0.5...I have given 1.64 to Shooters and fishers, and 0.55% for AFLP. As a curiosity, I have re-run my Monte Carlo simulations with 1.1% for each of the two parties.<br /><br />I get similar results for ALP, LIB, GRN, SXP, FF... But suddenly PUP's in the game with a 1% chance of election, and AFLP is up to 3%. What outcome do you get?Truth Seekerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05272077261033925542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-36013697479851309742013-09-05T21:59:55.915+10:002013-09-05T21:59:55.915+10:00Truthseeker, thanks for the great site - I can'...Truthseeker, thanks for the great site - I can't wait for tomorrow's update. Maybe you could include the continuing senators as well?<br />TAS: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 3 LNP<br />WA: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 3 LNP<br />SA: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 1 XEN, 2 LNP<br />VIC: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 FF<br />Continuing: 6 GRN, 13 ALP, 16 LNP, 1 DLP<br />Running total: 10 GRN, 21 ALP, 1 XEN, 26 LNP, 1 DLP, 1 FFEdwardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03896570603911304719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-56568412345222158112013-09-05T21:41:12.284+10:002013-09-05T21:41:12.284+10:00This election is turning up some interesting possi...This election is turning up some interesting possibilities. In previous decades, the Democrats would have got those seats in the middle.<br /><br />The strangest possibilities are the ones most likely to be thwarted by below-the-line votes. And of course those takes the longest to count, so we may be waiting all next week to see which of FF, Sex Party, No Carbon Tax, Xenophon, PUP and KAP gets seats in the Senate.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12877233988690775922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3398321532435953524.post-82280306072067406622013-09-05T21:21:13.128+10:002013-09-05T21:21:13.128+10:00Hi Truthseeker, did you split the Fishing vote in ...Hi Truthseeker, did you split the Fishing vote in half and distribute it to the new Fishing party? I get an interesting result.Grahamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01320298282537834217noreply@blogger.com