We're here!
Today, about 60% of West Australians will vote, in addition to those that have already voted and quite a few who won't. While the election will cost approx $20m to run, if the AEC enforces fines on the estimated 150,000-200,000 people who don't vote, this will reduce their net costs by a cool fe million dollars. At the midpoint, if the fine were to be increased from $20 to $120, then this entire election could be run at no net cost to the Australian budget bottom line.
If you would like me to run a scenario based on your estimated primaries, leave a comment below and I'll respond when I can. I will likely be busy from AEST 9:30am-1:00pm, and 5:00-7:00pm so there'll be chunks of today that I can't run my Monte Carlo model. I'll do my best though.
So leave a comment like this:
ReplyDeleteLIB 35.63%
NAT 4.44%
ALP 25.12%
GRN 13.49%
PUP 10.20%
WIKI 1.26%
SEX 1.09%
SFP 0.76%
LDP 0.84%
FF 0.59%
AFLP 0.34%
AJP 0.50%
AMEP 0.59%
DEM 0.42%
DLP 0.25%
GOD 0.80%
HEMP 0.42%
IND 0.84%
KAP 0.25%
PIR 0.42%
FREE 0.08%
ODR 0.17%
RUA 0.25%
SMOK 0.25%
SPORT 0.17%
SUS 0.08%
VEP 0.25%
BAP 0.08%
MUT 0.08%
REP 0.08%
SA 0.08%
SEC 0.08%
VOICE 0.08%
Note that separation between the parties name and their vote can be either a space, tab, comma, whatever.
These primaries are based on my last published primaries, except:
-LIB down 1%
-ALP down 2%
-PUP up 3%
This is in line with recent speculation to this effect on Poll Bludger and in other forums.
And then I'll respond with something like this:
DeleteLN-A-GPO 1000
30-2-100 219
30-2-010 147
30-1-110 187
30-1-101 2
21-2-010 1
21-1-110 5
20-2-110 423
20-1-111 16
LIB:2.555
NAT:0.006
ALP:1.790
GRN: 0.852
PUP:0.779
WIKI: 0.018
Just wondering, what exactly do the first 9 lines mean? (The 30-2-100 219, etc.)
DeleteLiberal National ALP Green PUP Other
DeleteThat makes sense. Thanks.
DeleteAs long as party codes are right, the order doesn't matter.
DeleteLIB 30.50%
ReplyDeleteNAT 5.48%
ALP 25.00%
GRN 12.61%
PUP 11.88%
WIKI 1.19%
SEX 1.10%
SFP 0.82%
LDP 3.66%
FF 0.55%
AFLP 0.40%
AJP 0.37%
AMEP 0.37%
DEM 0.37%
DLP 0.18%
GOD 1.19%
HEMP 1.37%
IND 0.37%
KAP 0.18%
PIR 0.27%
FREE 0.10%
ODR 0.09%
RUA 0.37%
SMOK 0.09%
SPORT 0.37%
SUS 0.27%
VEP 0.27%
BAP 0.08%
MUT 0.05%
REP 0.18%
SA 0.09%
SEC 0.10%
VOICE 0.08%
Although I think your LDP and HEMP are too high, and your ALP too low, here are your answers:
DeleteParty Elected
--------- ---------
LIB 2.231
NAT 0.266
ALP 1.752
GRN 0.704
PUP 0.910
WIKI 0.084
HEMP 0.026
LDP 0.020
SPORT 0.003
SUS 0.002
AMEP 0.001
SFP 0.001
LN-A-GPO Prob
---------- --------
20-2-110 0.372
21-2-010 0.139
30-2-010 0.121
21-1-110 0.088
20-1-111 0.088
30-1-110 0.067
30-2-100 0.038
21-2-100 0.038
20-2-011 0.034
20-2-101 0.009
30-1-101 0.004
30-1-011 0.001
21-2-001 0.001
LIB 34.7%
ReplyDeleteNAT 6.57%
ALP 25.8%
GRN 9.99%
PUP 8.51%
WIKI 1.5%
SEX 1.19%
SFP 0.85%
LDP 2.06%
FF 0.74%
AFLP 0.41%
AJP 0.37%
AMEP 0.77%
DEM 0.34%
DLP 0.21%
GOD 1.39%
HEMP 1.56%
IND 0.2%
KAP 0.15%
PIR 0.45%
FREE 0.11%
ODR 0.17%
RUA 0.22%
SMOK 0.35%
SPORT 0.45%
SUS 0.1%
VEP 0.18%
BAP 0.1%
MUT 0.1%
REP 0.1%
SA 0.15%
SEC 0.11%
VOICE 0.1%
Interesting - it's a scenario that's not very GRN friendly
DeleteParty Elected
--------- ---------
LIB 2.699
NAT 0.166
ALP 1.844
GRN 0.428
PUP 0.666
WIKI 0.147
HEMP 0.027
AMEP 0.021
SFP 0.002
LN-A-GPO Prob
---------- --------
30-2-010 0.380
30-2-100 0.150
20-2-110 0.070
21-2-010 0.068
21-2-100 0.065
30-1-110 0.062
30-2-001 0.050
30-1-101 0.031
20-2-011 0.028
20-1-111 0.025
30-1-011 0.024
21-2-001 0.017
20-2-101 0.014
21-1-110 0.006
21-1-101 0.005
21-1-011 0.003
31-2-000 0.002
LIB 36.54%
ReplyDeleteNAT 4.86%
ALP 26.24%
GRN 10.66%
PUP 9.15%
WIKI 1.02%
SEX 1.25%
SFP 1.01%
LDP 1.62%
FF 0.65%
AFLP 0.33%
AJP 0.42%
AMEP 0.47%
DEM 0.28%
DLP 0.40%
GOD 1.61%
HEMP 0.84%
IND 0.53%
KAP 0.30%
PIR 0.23%
FREE 0.11%
ODR 0.09%
RUA 0.26%
SMOK 0.09%
SPORT 0.17%
SUS 0.09%
VEP 0.09%
BAP 0.09%
MUT 0.09%
REP 0.17%
SA 0.18%
SEC 0.09%
VOICE 0.09%
Revised figures (sorry for earlier erroneous answer)
DeleteParty Elected
--------- ---------
LIB : 2.884
NAT : 0.017
ALP : 1.915
GRN : 0.399
PUP : 0.762
HEMP : 0.009
SFP : 0.006
WIKI : 0.006
AMEP : 0.001
FREE : 0.001
LN-A-GPO Prob
---------- --------
30-2-010 : 0.574
30-2-100 : 0.214
20-2-110 : 0.093
30-1-110 : 0.079
30-2-001 : 0.014
21-2-010 : 0.009
21-2-100 : 0.005
21-1-110 : 0.003
20-2-101 : 0.003
20-2-011 : 0.003
30-1-101 : 0.002
30-1-011 : 0.001
Less favourable for the Greens - but it does result in outside chances for AMEP, HEMP, SFP, WIKI.
The Freedom Party result here is fascinating. The M-C Sim gives LIB 32%, ALP 23%, OTH: 17.8% incl FREE 0.20%
DeleteIt results in a perfect harvesting operation for the FREE party, with ALP&GRN both just short of quota, and LIB+NAT being not enough to overcome FREE, catapulting FREE over the line.
If the FREE result is reduced to 0.09 in line with the others, do their chances completely disappear? If the 0.02 goes with another micro, do they replace them?
DeleteFirstly, 0.1% is not a big chance - it is only if the MC simulator happens to increase their vote to 0.20% that they get elected (implying that an increase to 0.19% may not be enough) Even so, it would rely on other parties being just below quota, and the LIB+NAT being less than 3.
DeleteBut the results are:
Party Elected
--------- ---------
LIB : 2.871
NAT : 0.012
ALP : 1.936
GRN : 0.389
PUP : 0.771
HEMP : 0.014
WIKI : 0.004
AMEP : 0.002
SFP : 0.001
LN-A-GPO Prob
---------- --------
30-2-010 : 0.594
30-2-100 : 0.205
20-2-110 : 0.109
30-1-110 : 0.059
30-2-001 : 0.008
20-2-101 : 0.007
21-2-100 : 0.005
21-2-010 : 0.005
30-1-101 : 0.003
20-2-011 : 0.002
31-2-000 : 0.001
30-1-011 : 0.001
21-1-110 : 0.001
So there are other changes here too - think of a M-C Sim as its own random sample amongst the realms of plausibility. With a sample size of 1000, it implies a margin of error of +/-3% or so. That is, if my MC spits out a 50% chance of outcome X, then it's 95% likely the true probability of that outcome is within 50% +/-3%