Data is king.
In a world of asymmetric information, a data hound such as I relies on the evidence around me to form views and opinions. While my innovative Monte Carlo simulations are straight data crunchers, there is always the risk of "Garbage in - Garbage out". That is, if my initial primary vote estimates are erroneous, there's no point.
My first step is to look at polling data, particularly the BludgerTrack.
Since doing this, several intelligent people have provided me with ideas for improving my modelling - this is great! Indeed, this is why I have so meticulously outlined my rationale to encourage others to critique and help me improve the data estimates that feed into the Monte Carlo sims.
The following information has recently become apparent:
1. PUP is outspending the other parties
No surprise here, but the level of outspending seems very high by recent standards
2. PUP had a good poll with Morgan
Sure, PUP polled 10.5% in a recent Morgan poll, but this was a sample size of just 247 WA voters, implying an error of ~4%
3. "Internal polling" suggests PUP vote is ~10%
I don't normally rely too much on what's reported as "internal polling", but I have been provided credible evidence from a trusted source that this is actually the case.
Each of these on its own is not a game-breaker. But in the world of Bayesian probability, each new data point builds on our last and we need to modify our conclusions based on all the available data. Is there a Palmer tsunami on? For short, we'll call it the Palmernami.
Using the base analysis tools previously referred to, the PUP vote was estimated to be 3.5% owing to a general post election decline in PUP vote as per BludgerTrack. So this becomes a starting point. Progressively, I now modify the PUP% while simultaneously reducing the PUP variation applied by the Monte Carlo Model to +/-10%. For these samples, n=500, and all reduced vote is coming proportionally from other parties. No other changes to methodology.
Senators elected with PUP=3.5%
OTH: 0.02 (DEM, WIKI)
Senators elected with PUP=5%
OTH: 0.02 (DEM)
Senators elected with PUP=7.5%
OTH: 0.002 (DEM)
Senators elected with PUP=10%
Senators elected with PUP=12.5%
Senators elected with PUP=15%
(odd - I suspect this LIB upturn likely produced by increasing PUP vote flowing back to LIB via preferences)
Note: Still no HEMP. Not even in a single scenario... I'll do that incremental analysis at some other stage this week I hope.