While I can't say how frequently I'll be able to post over the next two weeks (and possibly beyond), I will have an attempt at providing:
- new estimated seat percentages whenever new polling becomes available
- custom estimates for those of you who wish to say that my base percentage vote estimates are wrong
- potentially, a "live" election night blogging service.
My work and family life is much busier than September/October last year, but I'll do my best to write updates when I can.
I have exhumed my Monte Carlo Simulation model, loaded in the new WA preferences and reestimated primary votes for parties based on figures publicly available on the inimitable PollBludger's homepage.
I have also run several scenarios for what we might expect various parties to poll, refined some numbers due to differing ballot positions, superimposed national level swings, etc. And, I have also investigated some of $portsbet's juicier odds. Did you know, at the time of writing, PUP is $1.85 to get Zhenya "Dio" Wang elected to the senate? Or $1.85 to not get elected to the Senate? Take your pick!
More on this later.
Right now, I'll try to modernise my blog, lop off some old limbs, and generally do some gardening.