Methodology otherwise the same. But I've bumped up the Christian vote.
Primaries:
| LIB | 36.63% |
| NAT | 4.44% |
| ALP | 27.12% |
| GRN | 13.49% |
| PUP | 7.20% |
| WIKI | 1.26% |
| SEX | 1.09% |
| SFP | 0.76% |
| LDP | 0.84% |
| FF | 0.59% |
| AFLP | 0.34% |
| AJP | 0.50% |
| AMEP | 0.59% |
| DEM | 0.42% |
| DLP | 0.25% |
| GOD | 0.80% |
| HEMP | 0.42% |
| IND | 0.84% |
| KAP | 0.25% |
| PIR | 0.42% |
| FREE | 0.08% |
| ODR | 0.17% |
| RUA | 0.25% |
| SMOK | 0.25% |
| SPORT | 0.17% |
| SUS | 0.08% |
| VEP | 0.25% |
| BAP | 0.08% |
| MUT | 0.08% |
| REP | 0.08% |
| SA | 0.08% |
| SEC | 0.08% |
| VOICE | 0.08% |
Outcomes:
LIB: 2 + 70% for 3rd senator
ALP: 1 + 96% for 2nd senator
GRN: 94% for 1st senator
PUP: 40%
WIKI: 0.6%
DEM: 0.4%
so the only real issue is whether Lib or PUP get the last seat......hence TA criticising PUP advertising spend this morning....seems to confirm it...
ReplyDeleteIf this is true, then there is about 4% arb on Centrebet right now between PUP and Lib.
ReplyDelete4% Arb is fair - it implies a 96% chance that it's a one-or-the-other. But latest numbers will seem to complicate this...
DeleteThe arb didn't last long. Gone by mid morning.
DeleteFrom what I'm hearing, you should try knocking a few percent off Labor's vote and add a few to PUP.
ReplyDelete0.84 is pretty harsh for LDP. They do hold state seats in WA...
ReplyDeleteThere are no Liberal Democrats in the WA parliament. Are you thinking of Shooters & Fishers?
ReplyDeleteIR, if you can name the seat held by LDP in WA I will send you a bottle of Moet. In fact I will BRING you a bottle of Moet.
ReplyDelete