Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker


Wednesday 2 April 2014

New BludgerTrack data, Private polling included in aggregate

Quick post bringing it all together - private polling + latest BludgerTrack data.
Methodology otherwise the same. But I've bumped up the Christian vote.

Primaries:
LIB36.63%
NAT4.44%
ALP27.12%
GRN13.49%
PUP7.20%
WIKI1.26%
SEX1.09%
SFP0.76%
LDP0.84%
FF0.59%
AFLP0.34%
AJP0.50%
AMEP0.59%
DEM0.42%
DLP0.25%
GOD0.80%
HEMP0.42%
IND0.84%
KAP0.25%
PIR0.42%
FREE0.08%
ODR0.17%
RUA0.25%
SMOK0.25%
SPORT0.17%
SUS0.08%
VEP0.25%
BAP0.08%
MUT0.08%
REP0.08%
SA0.08%
SEC0.08%
VOICE0.08%

Outcomes:
LIB: 2 + 70% for 3rd senator
ALP: 1 + 96% for 2nd senator
GRN: 94% for 1st senator
PUP: 40%
WIKI: 0.6%
DEM: 0.4%

8 comments:

  1. so the only real issue is whether Lib or PUP get the last seat......hence TA criticising PUP advertising spend this morning....seems to confirm it...

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  2. If this is true, then there is about 4% arb on Centrebet right now between PUP and Lib.

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    Replies
    1. 4% Arb is fair - it implies a 96% chance that it's a one-or-the-other. But latest numbers will seem to complicate this...

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    2. The arb didn't last long. Gone by mid morning.

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  3. From what I'm hearing, you should try knocking a few percent off Labor's vote and add a few to PUP.

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  4. 0.84 is pretty harsh for LDP. They do hold state seats in WA...

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  5. There are no Liberal Democrats in the WA parliament. Are you thinking of Shooters & Fishers?

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  6. IR, if you can name the seat held by LDP in WA I will send you a bottle of Moet. In fact I will BRING you a bottle of Moet.

    ReplyDelete