Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker


Saturday 5 April 2014

Today's the day - live blogging tonight and scenarios-on-demand today

We're here!

Today, about 60% of West Australians will vote, in addition to those that have already voted and quite a few who won't. While the election will cost approx $20m to run, if the AEC enforces fines on the estimated 150,000-200,000 people who don't vote, this will reduce their net costs by a cool fe million dollars. At the midpoint, if the fine were to be increased from $20 to $120, then this entire election could be run at no net cost to the Australian budget bottom line.

If you would like me to run a scenario based on your estimated primaries, leave a comment below and I'll respond when I can. I will likely be busy from AEST 9:30am-1:00pm, and 5:00-7:00pm so there'll be chunks of today that I can't run my Monte Carlo model. I'll do my best though.



15 comments:

  1. So leave a comment like this:
    LIB 35.63%
    NAT 4.44%
    ALP 25.12%
    GRN 13.49%
    PUP 10.20%
    WIKI 1.26%
    SEX 1.09%
    SFP 0.76%
    LDP 0.84%
    FF 0.59%
    AFLP 0.34%
    AJP 0.50%
    AMEP 0.59%
    DEM 0.42%
    DLP 0.25%
    GOD 0.80%
    HEMP 0.42%
    IND 0.84%
    KAP 0.25%
    PIR 0.42%
    FREE 0.08%
    ODR 0.17%
    RUA 0.25%
    SMOK 0.25%
    SPORT 0.17%
    SUS 0.08%
    VEP 0.25%
    BAP 0.08%
    MUT 0.08%
    REP 0.08%
    SA 0.08%
    SEC 0.08%
    VOICE 0.08%

    Note that separation between the parties name and their vote can be either a space, tab, comma, whatever.

    These primaries are based on my last published primaries, except:
    -LIB down 1%
    -ALP down 2%
    -PUP up 3%
    This is in line with recent speculation to this effect on Poll Bludger and in other forums.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And then I'll respond with something like this:
      LN-A-GPO 1000
      30-2-100 219
      30-2-010 147
      30-1-110 187
      30-1-101 2
      21-2-010 1
      21-1-110 5
      20-2-110 423
      20-1-111 16

      LIB:2.555
      NAT:0.006
      ALP:1.790
      GRN: 0.852
      PUP:0.779
      WIKI: 0.018

      Delete
    2. Just wondering, what exactly do the first 9 lines mean? (The 30-2-100 219, etc.)

      Delete
    3. Liberal National ALP Green PUP Other

      Delete
    4. That makes sense. Thanks.

      Delete
    5. As long as party codes are right, the order doesn't matter.

      Delete
  2. LIB 30.50%
    NAT 5.48%
    ALP 25.00%
    GRN 12.61%
    PUP 11.88%
    WIKI 1.19%
    SEX 1.10%
    SFP 0.82%
    LDP 3.66%
    FF 0.55%
    AFLP 0.40%
    AJP 0.37%
    AMEP 0.37%
    DEM 0.37%
    DLP 0.18%
    GOD 1.19%
    HEMP 1.37%
    IND 0.37%
    KAP 0.18%
    PIR 0.27%
    FREE 0.10%
    ODR 0.09%
    RUA 0.37%
    SMOK 0.09%
    SPORT 0.37%
    SUS 0.27%
    VEP 0.27%
    BAP 0.08%
    MUT 0.05%
    REP 0.18%
    SA 0.09%
    SEC 0.10%
    VOICE 0.08%

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Although I think your LDP and HEMP are too high, and your ALP too low, here are your answers:
      Party Elected
      --------- ---------
      LIB 2.231
      NAT 0.266
      ALP 1.752
      GRN 0.704
      PUP 0.910
      WIKI 0.084
      HEMP 0.026
      LDP 0.020
      SPORT 0.003
      SUS 0.002
      AMEP 0.001
      SFP 0.001

      LN-A-GPO Prob
      ---------- --------
      20-2-110 0.372
      21-2-010 0.139
      30-2-010 0.121
      21-1-110 0.088
      20-1-111 0.088
      30-1-110 0.067
      30-2-100 0.038
      21-2-100 0.038
      20-2-011 0.034
      20-2-101 0.009
      30-1-101 0.004
      30-1-011 0.001
      21-2-001 0.001

      Delete
  3. LIB 34.7%
    NAT 6.57%
    ALP 25.8%
    GRN 9.99%
    PUP 8.51%
    WIKI 1.5%
    SEX 1.19%
    SFP 0.85%
    LDP 2.06%
    FF 0.74%
    AFLP 0.41%
    AJP 0.37%
    AMEP 0.77%
    DEM 0.34%
    DLP 0.21%
    GOD 1.39%
    HEMP 1.56%
    IND 0.2%
    KAP 0.15%
    PIR 0.45%
    FREE 0.11%
    ODR 0.17%
    RUA 0.22%
    SMOK 0.35%
    SPORT 0.45%
    SUS 0.1%
    VEP 0.18%
    BAP 0.1%
    MUT 0.1%
    REP 0.1%
    SA 0.15%
    SEC 0.11%
    VOICE 0.1%

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Interesting - it's a scenario that's not very GRN friendly

      Party Elected
      --------- ---------
      LIB 2.699
      NAT 0.166
      ALP 1.844
      GRN 0.428
      PUP 0.666
      WIKI 0.147
      HEMP 0.027
      AMEP 0.021
      SFP 0.002


      LN-A-GPO Prob
      ---------- --------
      30-2-010 0.380
      30-2-100 0.150
      20-2-110 0.070
      21-2-010 0.068
      21-2-100 0.065
      30-1-110 0.062
      30-2-001 0.050
      30-1-101 0.031
      20-2-011 0.028
      20-1-111 0.025
      30-1-011 0.024
      21-2-001 0.017
      20-2-101 0.014
      21-1-110 0.006
      21-1-101 0.005
      21-1-011 0.003
      31-2-000 0.002

      Delete
  4. LIB 36.54%
    NAT 4.86%
    ALP 26.24%
    GRN 10.66%
    PUP 9.15%
    WIKI 1.02%
    SEX 1.25%
    SFP 1.01%
    LDP 1.62%
    FF 0.65%
    AFLP 0.33%
    AJP 0.42%
    AMEP 0.47%
    DEM 0.28%
    DLP 0.40%
    GOD 1.61%
    HEMP 0.84%
    IND 0.53%
    KAP 0.30%
    PIR 0.23%
    FREE 0.11%
    ODR 0.09%
    RUA 0.26%
    SMOK 0.09%
    SPORT 0.17%
    SUS 0.09%
    VEP 0.09%
    BAP 0.09%
    MUT 0.09%
    REP 0.17%
    SA 0.18%
    SEC 0.09%
    VOICE 0.09%

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Revised figures (sorry for earlier erroneous answer)

      Party Elected
      --------- ---------
      LIB : 2.884
      NAT : 0.017
      ALP : 1.915
      GRN : 0.399
      PUP : 0.762
      HEMP : 0.009
      SFP : 0.006
      WIKI : 0.006
      AMEP : 0.001
      FREE : 0.001


      LN-A-GPO Prob
      ---------- --------
      30-2-010 : 0.574
      30-2-100 : 0.214
      20-2-110 : 0.093
      30-1-110 : 0.079
      30-2-001 : 0.014
      21-2-010 : 0.009
      21-2-100 : 0.005
      21-1-110 : 0.003
      20-2-101 : 0.003
      20-2-011 : 0.003
      30-1-101 : 0.002
      30-1-011 : 0.001

      Less favourable for the Greens - but it does result in outside chances for AMEP, HEMP, SFP, WIKI.

      Delete
    2. The Freedom Party result here is fascinating. The M-C Sim gives LIB 32%, ALP 23%, OTH: 17.8% incl FREE 0.20%

      It results in a perfect harvesting operation for the FREE party, with ALP&GRN both just short of quota, and LIB+NAT being not enough to overcome FREE, catapulting FREE over the line.

      Delete
    3. If the FREE result is reduced to 0.09 in line with the others, do their chances completely disappear? If the 0.02 goes with another micro, do they replace them?

      Delete
    4. Firstly, 0.1% is not a big chance - it is only if the MC simulator happens to increase their vote to 0.20% that they get elected (implying that an increase to 0.19% may not be enough) Even so, it would rely on other parties being just below quota, and the LIB+NAT being less than 3.

      But the results are:
      Party Elected
      --------- ---------
      LIB : 2.871
      NAT : 0.012
      ALP : 1.936
      GRN : 0.389
      PUP : 0.771
      HEMP : 0.014
      WIKI : 0.004
      AMEP : 0.002
      SFP : 0.001


      LN-A-GPO Prob
      ---------- --------
      30-2-010 : 0.594
      30-2-100 : 0.205
      20-2-110 : 0.109
      30-1-110 : 0.059
      30-2-001 : 0.008
      20-2-101 : 0.007
      21-2-100 : 0.005
      21-2-010 : 0.005
      30-1-101 : 0.003
      20-2-011 : 0.002
      31-2-000 : 0.001
      30-1-011 : 0.001
      21-1-110 : 0.001

      So there are other changes here too - think of a M-C Sim as its own random sample amongst the realms of plausibility. With a sample size of 1000, it implies a margin of error of +/-3% or so. That is, if my MC spits out a 50% chance of outcome X, then it's 95% likely the true probability of that outcome is within 50% +/-3%

      Delete