Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Tuesday, 1 October 2013

Senate declarations

It's approaching declaration time in the remaining Senate races.

Here is the Truth Seeker assessment of all the outstanding contests

These times are all EST and these are the declaration time. I am unaware what time the button is being pressed but it would likely be an hour prior. I will post analysis as we go on each Senate election as it is called, and I will also tweet it.

ACT 1pm
Assessment: 1 ALP, 1 LNP. I don't think the Animal Justice preferences flowing to Liberal's Zed Seselja will be the critical factor, but it certainly puts this contest beyond doubt

Super Wednesday
VIC 10am
Assessment: 2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 GRN, 1 Motoring Enthusiast
I have tried to break my model to try to get it to elect something different. The only way this appears possible is the PUP vs AMEP near the final stage. I calculate AMEP ahead by about 22000 votes, with 25000 BTL votes in the mixer at this point. As well as PUP did in TAS BTLs, this gap does not appear close enough. In the event this gap was bridged, the 3rd LNP Senator, Helen Kroger, would be elected.

SA 12pm (EST)
Assessment: 2 LNP, 1 XEN, 1 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 Family First.
The closest break point here is the FF vs LDP. If LDP can somehow exceed FF at this point, then No Carbon Tax gets elected instead of Family First. Unlikely.

WA 5pm (EST)
Assessment: 3 LNP, 1 ALP + (1 SPORT, 1 GRN) OR (1 ALP, 1 PUP)
Well, they save the close one until last. See my analysis yesterday. My modelling is showing an estimated 28 vote lead to the Shooters, implying an ALP/PUP election.
(Some of my modelling has suggested SPORT&ALP and GRN&PUP... But I'm not confident enough in this to call it so I will leave it as an afternote). I do plan on fully analysing these too unlikely combos in time for my update tomorrow night.

Some point in the future... probably...
QLD and NSW. Not sure when at this stage, I'll keep you posted!

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