(Updates in reverse order, so hence the "reverse donkey" numbering)
6. If all WIKILEAKS voters had trusted their party's unusual preferencing of the Sports Party and Nationals, GRN and Sports would have been elected.
5. If all BTL votes for #2 candidates for the Christians and the Shooters had gone to their #1 candidates, the Christians would have been ahead and GRN/SPORT likely winners.
4. Here's a graph of the progressive (non-ticket) margins for the Shooters v Christians battle.
Most observations are obvious:
a) Shooters held a slight lead on its ticket votes (incl 3689 Australian Independents and 5516 Fishing and Lifestyle ticket votes) compared to the Christians (incl 1404 No Carbon Tax ticket votes)
b) Christians gained strongly on its BTL votes and Shooters on its BTL votes, but...
c) Shooters "lost" 16 votes from its #2 candidate, the Christians "lost" 33 votes from its #2 candidate including 3 that went to its opponents.
d) Strong flows from Rise Up and Family First to Christians
e) Moderate flows from Fishing and Lifestyle and Motoring Enthusiasts to Shooters.
f) Surprisingly, very strong flows from the Sex Party to the Shooters. I would have expected a small flow instead in line with 2010 results.
3. Wikileaks BTL votes - 71 to Shooters, 41 to Christians - it's official. Despite the best intentions of WIKILEAKS preferencing crew to stop the greens, it was their BTL voters who inadvertently helped ensure Ludlam wasn't elected.
2. There were 19 BTL votes for "Stop the Greens" that gave their next preference to the Shooters and Fishers. I think we can say they achieved their aims.
1. If 15 Greens voters had voted for the Christians, GRN and