Updated WA Senate BTL flows

As I continue to refine my model for estimating BTL flows, I now add additional information derived from analysis of WA's 2010 Senate election.

Combining this information with the TAS 2013 Senate estimated still results in a lead to the Shooters in BTL votes, but only of 76 votes instead of 136 votes. Hence, ALP's Louise Pratt and PUP's Zhenya Wang retain a narrow advantage in the 2013 WA Senate election.

WA Senate - Below The Line (BTL) analysis

Tonight's update focuses on WA - the Senate race shaping up to be closer than Tasmania.

And you thought the current Senate was chaotic...

After utilising my specialised Monte Carlo models to successfully predict the "barnyard" nature of the new Senate, I have remodelled outcomes that would be likely under a hypothetical double dissolution.

NSW Senate - update 26-9-13

Brief update of the current state of the NSW Senate...

WA Senate - Update and BTL vote estimation - 26-9-13

Tonight I provide an update on the close WA Senate count.

In a comment earlier, I promised to determine a "transition matrix" for BTL votes. Using imperfect data, I have done so.

WA Senate update - 25-9-13 - Greens/Sport leading...

This post is just a brief update of the current status of the WA Senate election.

TAS Senate - Below the line voting analysis

Between work and other commitments, I have whipped together a quick graphical analysis of how preferences actually flowed below the line (BTL) in a number of interesting mid-stage eliminations in the declared Tasmanian Senate.

Lambie wins!

Developing...

As expected, Palmer United Party's Jacqui Lambie declared winner of final Tasmanian Senate seat.

Finally announced result:
2 LIB
2 ALP
1 GRN
1 PUP

More info posted here progressively over the next 24 hours.

Don't forget to follow me ‏on Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Tasmania - PUP set to win

After analysing the near final AEC figures, PUP's Jacqui Lambie is likely to win the final senate spot.

Senate update - 23-9-13 - 10pm update

Well, what a big day it's been in Senate counting - the AEC has updated Senate results from 146 of the 150 electorates.

While I am busy at work, I will be tweeting any odd or revised Senate outcomes so follow me @AU_Truth_Seeker

Here is my estimation for the overall Senate makeup:

Sunday non-update

Today, the AEC updated the results of eight HoR electorates, but only updated the Senate results of two HoR divisions - Lindsay and Kingsford Smith.

By my calcs, the number of formal Senate votes increased by 14 (not 14%, but 14 votes).

Next update approx 10pm Monday.

Senate update - 21-9-13 - Part 2 - WA

Yesterday, I pointed out the critical points of the WA Senate election. Today, I refine my numbers using actual BTL votes to calculate revised margins at the critical points.

Senate update - 21-09-13 - Part 1 - NSW

Part 1 of tonight's update relates to NSW's Senate election.

If Family First vote moves either up or down, outside a narrow band, the contest is open.

Flip!

One moment you're winning the next you're not. This short post outlines another example of an AEC error.

Senate update - 20-9-13 - Part 2 - NSW

Part 2 of tonight's update relates to NSW's Senate election.

I throw another potential winner into the mix tonight...

Senate update - 20-9-13 - Part 1 - WA

Yesterday, I pointed out the critical points of the WA Senate election. Tonight I add a new critical point that could result in the election of Jim Fryar from the LDP.

(Tonight, I will also attempt to update the NSW Senate count - this is just as interesting as WA and should not be written off as a fait accompli).

Senate update - 19-9-2013 - 10pm update.

Welcome to my latest update.

I will focus on WA and NSW. I have found a new path to the Democrats winning NSW, and present a new critical point for WA that may save Dropulich / Ludlam.

Senate update - 18-9-13 - 10pm

A lot more counting in the Senate today, as we move closer towards having some more results

NSW Senate - an outside chance of another outsider?

Two nights ago, I got a bit excited. My Monte Carlo simulation model showed in excess of 20% likelihood of a Democrat, Ronaldo Villaver, being elected to the Senate. It was too late for me to undertake a full analysis, so I left this until yesterday.

Senate results - 10pm update

Brief update here tonight.

Senate results - 16-9-13 - 10pm update

Hello again - welcome to my latest 10pm update. This time, it's slightly later than 10pm... Also, I have chosen to focus on the State with the closest Senate election.

Here's the forecast senate outcome:

NT and ACT Senate - late counting update

Although there has been a bit of action and recent movement regarding the likelihoods of various States' elected senators, I have not spent too much time on the important Territory elections.

Here's a quick post regarding which Senators the territories will elect.

TruthSeeker turns into FactChecker - Did Sex Party preferences "elect" LDP candidate?

In order to publish something productive in a day where the AEC has counted less than 1000 additional Senate votes nation wide, I thought I would respond to a previous comment on my blog from Anonymous and consider what would have happened in NSW had the SXP been less than cooperative, considering the question of whether SXP preferences elected the Liberal Democratic Party.

Would this have led to different likelihoods of election of NSW Senators, all else being equal?

Senate results - 15-9-13 - 10pm non-update

What a non-event day in Senate counting. I thought the AEC would have made good use of this Sunday to make some headway into the Senate counts given most of the heavy lifting has now been done for the House of Reps seats.

So what new Senate counting did we have today?

Senate results - 14-9-13 - 10pm update

Welcome to my latest daily 10pm update of Monte Carlo simulated Senate forecasts.

Today was an unfortunately quiet day on the count with two states having additional count, two states having no additional count and two states, gosh, recording a lower percentage of votes counted today than yesterday!! (I think this was partially due to a series of recounts and vote apportionment from above to below the line... but I’m not certain. If you know, please leave in comments.

But I’ll press on regardless with regular features.

The forecast summary is as follows:

Senate results - 13-9-13 - 10pm update

Welcome to my latest daily 10pm update of Monte Carlo simulated Senate forecast.

The forecast summary is as follows:

Senate results - 12-9-13 - 10pm update

Welcome to my latest daily 10pm update of Monte Carlo simulated Senate forecast.

The forecast summary is as follows:

Senate results - updated - 11-9-13 - 10pm

Welcome to my latest daily update of Monte Carlo simulated Senate forecast. Today, my “10pm update” comes 2 hours early, because I’m tired, so it may not represent the end-of-counting of the day.

The forecast summary is as follows:

Senate results - updated - 10-9-13 10pm

Welcome to my latest daily update of Monte Carlo simulated Senate forecast.

The forecast summary is as follows:

Thought bubble - ACT Senate BTL preferences favouring Zed Seselja

There has been a lot of discussion about the ACT Senate race recently. Others have recently reported that this is now a clear 1-1 split.

On current numbers, the total Liberal party group vote is 33.37%. This is effectively 64 votes above quota. However, it is likely the LIB #2 candidate got >64 BTL votes, so at least the first few stages of a preference distribution will be required. At this stage, Zed Seselja does NOT have quota by himself - his party does, but not him.

Senate results - Consolidated - 9-9-13 10pm

Welcome to my latest daily update of Monte Carlo simulated Senate forecast.

The forecast summary is as follows:

Senate results - Consolidated - 8-9-13 10pm

I have updated the Senate results using latest AEC data.

Here is the currently forecast elected Senate:

Senate results - Consolidated - 8-9-2013 10am

In the most likely case, it now appears as if the Coalition will have a path to achieving its legislative reforms without having to rely on Labor or the Greens.

QLD Senate update - 66% counted

For the final state in the Truth Seeker series, we use closing election day figures in QLD.

Here are the results of the QLD half Senate election

SA Senate update - 71% counted

For the fifth state in the Truth Seeker series, we use closing election day figures in SA.

Here are the results of the SA half Senate election

WA Senate update - 61% counted

For the fourth state in our series, we analyse election likelihoods in WA.

Results are as follows:

TAS Senate update - 78% counted

For the third state in our series, we analyse election likelihoods in Tasmania.

Results are as follows:

VIC Senate update - 61% counted

In addition to NSW, we have some near-final figures for Victoria too.

Here are the results of the VIC half Senate election

NSW Senate update - 64% counted

Now we're approaching the end of the night, and the end of updates. I will post figures for each of the states here. These are moving slowly, so I have applied a narrow range of variability.

Here are the results of the NSW half Senate election

TAS projections - actual votes at 17%

2 ALP, 2 LNP are 100% likely

Others:
Green 82%
PUP 71%
LIB 46%

These are based on 1000 Monte Carlo simulations based on ACTUAL votes at approx 17% counted.

Live Senate Analysis - South Australia

Tonight I will present my Monte Carlo analysis, based on official data as it's released

  

Live Senate analysis - NSW

Tonight I will present my Monte Carlo analysis, based on official data as it's released

Live Senate analysis - QLD - Glenn Lazarus likely elected

Tonight I will present my Monte Carlo analysis, based on official data as it's released

Live senate analysis - VIC

Tonight I will present my Monte Carlo analysis, based on official data as it's released

Initial data from VICshows likely senate vote of:
LNP: 38%
ALP: 30.5%
GRN: 13.6%
PUP: 4%

Likely candidates elected:
LNP: 2 +20% chance of 3rd
ALP 2
GRN: 1
FF: 80%

Vic Likely to elect a FF senator, splitting 2-2-1-1

Live Senate analysis - Tasmania

Tonight I will present my Monte Carlo analysis, based on official data as it's released

Initial data from TAS shows likely senate vote of:
LNP: 41%
ALP: 31%
GRN: 11.5%
PUP: 6%

Likely candidates elected:
LNP: 2, +50% chance of 3rd seat
ALP 2
GRN: 92% likely
FF: 25%
PUP: 25%

Tasmania Likely to remain at 3-3

Truth Seeker final polling estimates

Hello all,

This summary is based on final polls released in the last two days.

SUMMARY
NSW: 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
VIC: 2 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 FF
QLD: 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 PUP
WA: 3 LNP, 1 ALP, 1 PUP, 1 GRN
SA: 2 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 XEN
TAS: 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
Territories: 2 ALP, 2 LNP
Total: 18 LNP, 13 ALP, 5 GRN, 2 PUP, 1 FF, 1 XEN


I might be short on presentation tonight, I'll try to put my efforts into data.

I'll update over the next half hour for all 6 states (territories will assume as 1-1, until evidence otherwise exists....

Developing...

NSW:
LNP 2, +97%
ALP 2
GRN 62%
ONP: 12%
Shooters: 10%
Building Australia: 8% (I suspect this may drop to zero later...)
KAP: 4%
<2%: CSG, SXP, LDP
<1%: DEM, CDP, Stable Population
Commentary: Drop in Greens, BAP extremely high


WA:
LNP 2, +82% for 3rd
ALP 1, +63% for 2nd
GRN 82% for 1st
PUP 71%,
Everyone else <1%
Commentary. Higher PUP vote of 6.7% leads to PUP likely to take WA Senate seat. Either LNP3, ALP2 or GRN1 may be lost if PUP wins.

QLD:
LNP 2, +60% of 3rd
ALP 2
GRN 16%
KAP 13%
FF 12%
PUP 91%
Aus Ind 6%
Commentary: Palmer Party will be elected instead of Greens for QLD, if polling of 10% is confirmed.

SA:
LNP 2
ALP 1 + 66% of 2nd
XEN 1
GRN 53%
FF 34%
NCT 31%
PUP 16%
Commentary. Again final polling showing PUP strong (est 4.5% primary) and lower late ALP vote reducing ALP and Green chance of going 3-3 in SA

VIC 
ALP 2
LNP 2 + 4% chance of 3rd
GRN 1
FF 86% likely
PUP 7%
Commentary: No change in Victoria. Still likely 2-2-1-1

TAS
LNP 2, with 80% chance of 3rd
ALP 1, with 90% chance of 2nd
GRN 1
FF 20%
SXP 10%
Commentary. No change from previous estimate.

ACT Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the final jurisdiction in my senate series – ACT.

Most likely elected Senate (ACT):

NSW Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the seventh and penultimate jurisdiction in my senate series – NSW.

Most likely elected Senate (NSW):

Queensland Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the sixth jurisdiction in my senate series – QLD.

Most likely elected Senate (QLD):

NT Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the fifth state jurisdiction in my senate series – Northern Territory. Like all states, this uses the same Monte Carlo techniques to derive percentage likelihoods of election for candidates, given registered party preferences and fair expectations about my uncertainty of knowing a party's actual final vote.

Most likely elected Senate (NT):

Tasmanian Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the fourth state in my senate series – Tasmania.

UPDATE: I have run an alternative scenario based on a LIB primary vote that is 1% lower. See below for the outcomes of this alternative scenario.

Most likely elected Senate (TAS):

WA Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the third state in my senate series – Western Australia. I have decided to do WA next to give myself an extra day of time to determine the impact Clive Palmer will have on QLD and NSW.

Most likely elected Senate (WA):

SA Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the second state in my senate series – South Australia.

Most likely elected Senate (SA):

Victorian Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

I have updated my calculation of primary votes to allow for the latest polls, and slightly tweaked my method for calculating minor party support to allow for more national consistency.

See my previous post for the method I use within my model.

Most likely elected Senate (Victoria):

Tasmania - a close escape from "unrepresentative swill"

By  more good luck than good management, it appears likely that the swing from ALP to Liberal is so strong in Tasmania as to push the Liberal Party up to 43%+, but not so strong that the ALP vote drops below 29%. Together with the fact the greens will almost certainly poll 15%+, this will ensure minor parties are thankfully locked out of the Tasmanian Senate lottery.

So the final Tasmanian Senate outcome will likely be:

Truth Seeker hits page 1 of The Sunday Age, most read story online

"Computer simulations by a professional financial modeller writing on online electoral sites as "the truth seeker" show that depending on the exact votes for each party and order of elimination, the Australian Democrats, the Sex Party, WikiLeaks, the Shooters and Fishers, the Liberal Democrats, and even the Stable Population Party have a chance of winning Senate seats."

Article by Tim Colebatch and Chris Johnson, Sunday 1 September 2013, Page 1.

Also, this story was also the #1 most read story on theage.com.au:

Thanks to Crikey and Poll Bludger for providing me the initial platform to raise these potentially undemocratic outcomes.