Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker


Saturday, 7 September 2013

Truth Seeker final polling estimates

Hello all,

This summary is based on final polls released in the last two days.

SUMMARY
NSW: 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
VIC: 2 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 FF
QLD: 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 PUP
WA: 3 LNP, 1 ALP, 1 PUP, 1 GRN
SA: 2 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 XEN
TAS: 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
Territories: 2 ALP, 2 LNP
Total: 18 LNP, 13 ALP, 5 GRN, 2 PUP, 1 FF, 1 XEN


I might be short on presentation tonight, I'll try to put my efforts into data.

I'll update over the next half hour for all 6 states (territories will assume as 1-1, until evidence otherwise exists....

Developing...

NSW:
LNP 2, +97%
ALP 2
GRN 62%
ONP: 12%
Shooters: 10%
Building Australia: 8% (I suspect this may drop to zero later...)
KAP: 4%
<2%: CSG, SXP, LDP
<1%: DEM, CDP, Stable Population
Commentary: Drop in Greens, BAP extremely high


WA:
LNP 2, +82% for 3rd
ALP 1, +63% for 2nd
GRN 82% for 1st
PUP 71%,
Everyone else <1%
Commentary. Higher PUP vote of 6.7% leads to PUP likely to take WA Senate seat. Either LNP3, ALP2 or GRN1 may be lost if PUP wins.

QLD:
LNP 2, +60% of 3rd
ALP 2
GRN 16%
KAP 13%
FF 12%
PUP 91%
Aus Ind 6%
Commentary: Palmer Party will be elected instead of Greens for QLD, if polling of 10% is confirmed.

SA:
LNP 2
ALP 1 + 66% of 2nd
XEN 1
GRN 53%
FF 34%
NCT 31%
PUP 16%
Commentary. Again final polling showing PUP strong (est 4.5% primary) and lower late ALP vote reducing ALP and Green chance of going 3-3 in SA

VIC 
ALP 2
LNP 2 + 4% chance of 3rd
GRN 1
FF 86% likely
PUP 7%
Commentary: No change in Victoria. Still likely 2-2-1-1

TAS
LNP 2, with 80% chance of 3rd
ALP 1, with 90% chance of 2nd
GRN 1
FF 20%
SXP 10%
Commentary. No change from previous estimate.

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