Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Monday, 16 September 2013

NT and ACT Senate - late counting update

Although there has been a bit of action and recent movement regarding the likelihoods of various States' elected senators, I have not spent too much time on the important Territory elections.

Here's a quick post regarding which Senators the territories will elect.
Current counting shows both ALP and LIB are in excess of the all important quota of 33.33%. LIB is 33.44% and ALP is 34.77%. However, breaking down the vote by estimated candidate, instead of party, we need to subtract the Below the Line (BTL) vote for each of the #2 LIB candidate and the #2 ALP candidate.

In 2010, there was 0.4% and 0.6% BTL for LIB#2 and ALP#2. Let's assume the BTL% is half this time compared to last time and we end up with 0.2% and 0.3%. This means that Zed Seselja will need to go to preferences as his primary may be just a touch below the quota. He will have no problem making this up on BTL votes from his #2 candidate, or in the worst case others that leak to him. As I previously calculated he could expect positive leakage of 0.36%. Even if this is still not enough for quota, he will likely get elected off the preferences of the Animal Justice Party, who are polling in excess of 1%.

ACT summary: Kate Lundy (ALP) and Zed Seselja (LIB) will be declared elected.

The most current figures show Nigel Scullion (CLP) polling a very strong 41.3% and Nova Peris (ALP) flip-flopping between being above quota and below quota, depending on when the AEC data is refreshed. Currently, she is on 33.66%. It is likely that the BTL vote for ALP #2 candidate, Rowan Foley, will be approx 0.2%.

So Peris may well need to go to preferences.

As there is a degree of uncertainty, and as I have previously mentioned, there existed a possibility for the Australian First Nations Political Party or the Sex Party to get elected if they poll well and get a favourable order of election. However, as both AFNPP and SXP polled poorly, it is more likely that the "lead" minor party will instead be PUP or Shooters and Fishers Party (SFP). If either of these cases were to eventuate, the tight preference deal in the NT that favours SXP and AFNPP falls apart, easily electing Peris.

Not to be dissuaded, I ran the current vote numbers through my Monte Carlo Model. With a massive +/-25% variation*, my model showed 100% chance of ALP election and 100% chance of LNP election. This means that even any large variation in party votes between now and close of counting and any large and unexpected BTL movements will not be enough to disturb a 1-1 election.

NT Summary: Nigel Scullion (CLP) and Nova Peris (ALP) will be declared elected.

(I suspect this will be my final post on ACT and NT Senate elections - keep tuned for my "daily updates", around 10-11pm until State and Territory Senators are officially declared elected).

*The variation is the percentage movement in each party's vote to randomly apply within the range. This form of analysis is excellent for doing "what if" scenarios, instead of manually testing dozens of different orders of elimination. A 25% variation, when 66% of the vote has been counted, is extremely large. A more likely narrow range would be +/-5%. So proving Peris gets elected with a large +/- variation definitively proves she will get elected when we know the actual variation will be much less.


  1. Not sure if you have noted, but ATL / BTL splits by party are up on the AEC site now.

    1. Yes, they're partially up, but it is still going to be very clearly 1-1 in each territory.