Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Friday, 27 September 2013

NSW Senate - update 26-9-13

Brief update of the current state of the NSW Senate...

I have previously gone into significant detail regarding possible outcomes of the NSW Senate. Rather than focusing on all the possible eliminations and critical counts, I will focus instead of three different counts that will define the outcome. What is locked in is 2 LNP, 1 LDP, 2 ALP, with the third LNP candidate, Arthur Sinodinos, most likely to win.

For there to be any different outcome, early in the count FF vote must be either higher or lower. If it is lower, it may get eliminated by Bullet Train. If it is higher, FF will knock out AMEP, leading to a flow of preferences that threaten Sinodinos. Ironically, either outcome can lead to non-election of Sinodinos. Given the early stage of elimination of candidates that these counts occur on, I consider it highly unlikely that BTLs will have any significant impact here. What we do know is that the AMEP vs FF margin is just 389 votes.

Secondly, the Democrats must outpoll the Sex Party for Sinodinos to not get elected. However, this gap is increasing and the lead to the Sex Party is 1862 votes. As above, BTL votes will not overcome this gap.

Thirdly, at a very late stage (assuming FF vote varies, and Dem outpoll Sex), there is a critical count of LNP vs SFP. If LNP is eliminated at this stage, its preferences will elect SFP. If SFP is eliminated, its preferences will elect DEM. The current margin here is a whopping 6320 votes after considering only ticket votes. This means that even if we make it to this third critical count, SFP will be elected not DEM.

Assessment: After initially gaining my interest, late counting has made it increasingly unlikely that Sinodinos will not get elected. In the highly unlikely situation cards do not fall Sinodinos' way, the Shooters and Fishers Party will benefit, not the Democrats.

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