Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Saturday, 7 September 2013

Live Senate analysis - QLD - Glenn Lazarus likely elected

Tonight I will present my Monte Carlo analysis, based on official data as it's released

Data from QLD shows likely senate vote of:
LNP: 39%
ALP: 27%
GRN: 9%
PUP: 13%

Likely candidates elected:
LNP: 2, +50% chance of 3rd seat
ALP 1, +80% chance of 2nd seat
PUP 96% liklely
GRN: 40% 
FF: 27%
KAP: 1%

QLD Likely to elect 2 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 PUP and either a Green, LNP3 or FF


  1. Agree based on ABC analysis.
    Just scary however.

    1. My model is calibrated to ABC, based on same number of primary votes.