Here’s the fourth state in my senate series – Tasmania.
UPDATE: I have run an alternative scenario based on a LIB primary vote that is 1% lower. See below for the outcomes of this alternative scenario.
Most likely elected Senate (TAS):
1 GRN, 2 ALP, 3 LNP
I am constantly updating my calculation of primary votes to allow for the latest polls, and slightly tweaked my method for calculating minor party support to allow for more national consistency. Variation is also slightly higher to represent more uncertainty than was previously allowed for.
In particular, the Tasmanian situation is very hard to call, given the small size of the state make it near impossible for any meaningful polls to be conducted. Of the most extensively conducted polls, Reachtel has been inconsistent and downplayed by some. Furthermore, applying House swings to the Senate in TAS is also flawed as in one of the five HoR seats, an independent will poll incredibly well, reducing the accuracy of any Senate estimates. So, avid readers will note I have applied a large +/-10% variance to ALP and LNP. This means the model will not produce a 100% likelihood result unless it is extremely likely that this is the case. Anyway… here are the numbers.
LIB: 39.3% (+/-3.9%)
ALP: 31.2% (+/-3.1%)
GRN: 14.4% (+/-2.8%)
Minor parties: 15% comprising selected parties:
PUP: 3.3% (+/-1.6%)
SXP: 2.2% (+/-1.1%)
FF: 1.1% (+/-0.5%)
Shooters and Fishers: 1.6% (+/-0.8%)
AFLP: 0.6% (+/-0.3%)
Country Alliance: 0.8% (+/-0.4%)
Likelihood of election:
LIB: 2 elected
ALP: 2 elected
GRN: 1 elected
(Model gives a 99% likelihood to the first 5 being elected)
LIB (3rd candidate): 41%
Shooters and Fishers: 7%
<1% likelihood of election: PUP, AFLP, Country Alliance.
4 Left, 2 Right: 23% likely
3 Left, 3 Right: 77% likely
- Two ALP, 2 LIB and 1 GRN elected off primaries
- The sixth spot becomes a lottery – I feel like I’m saying this far too frequently.
- Most likely is a 3rd Liberal, with strong outside chances to FF and SXP.
- The Country Alliance vote is high due to the Group A donkey vote.
- There has been a lot of talk about FF in Tasmania, but what’s been overlooked is the SXP. They draw votes from ALP and GRN surpluses and the Left parties, but they also steal votes from the right via Country Alliance, Shooters and Fishers(!) and the Smokers.
As above, and as stated previously my personal expectation is a straight 3-2-1 split. But in applying uncertainty owing to the lack of credible polls, this opens the door for the minor parties. Statistically, I just cannot be certain of the votes of each party and have to apply a large variance as my model foresees unlikely occurrences.
Ironically, if the Liberal Party doesn’t poll enough votes, the 6th spot may be won by either the Sex Party or Family First. If it is SXP, then justice will not have been served as a 4-2 L-R split will prevail, due to votes of conservative groups being “stolen” to elect a party abhorred by conservatives.
In Tasmania, ALP winning 1/5 HoR seats yet the Left fluking 4/6 Senate seats would represent a failure of democracy.
UPDATE: Various other scenarios have been run in Tasmania. Given LIB, ALP and GRN are all on the cusp of obtaining outright quota, the model is sensitive to any change in primary vote. In particular, one scenario assumed a 1% drop in the LIB primary vote and this will result in FF being more likely than LIB to be elected to the 6th spot. Under this alternative scenario, FF gets elected 50% of the time, LIB3 elected 22%, Shooters 11%, Sex Party 10%, Others 7%
Over the coming days, I will publish equivalent summaries for other states. I won’t talk about the methodology – this is largely covered in prior posts. On election day, I will republish my full final results, updated for latest polling data.
Summaries so far:
TAS: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 3 LNP
WA: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 3 LNP
SA: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 1 XEN, 2 LNP
VIC: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 FF
Running total: 4 GRN, 8 ALP, 1 XEN, 10 LNP, 1 FF