Here is the currently forecast elected Senate:
Unsurprisingly, no surprise here and no change to data provided this morning.
There are some minor changes to the detailed summary
Essentially, I have slightly reduced my estimate of variability. I will continue to do this as more and more vote is counted and we get closer to having "final" data.
And one more thing... if time allows this week I will undertake an analysis of BTL votes from the 2010 election to determine their impact on the remaining non-locked in elected Senators.
The Age mentions "Glenn Druery, the self-styled mastermind of small party preference flows" in the story "Mr Abbott, meet some of your new best friends in the Senate."
ReplyDeleteSpecifically, they write: "Mr Druery's prodigious mathematical skills have made him a fixture come election time. This year, through his company Independent Liaison, he organised the Minor Party Alliance that stacked preference flows across Australia."
This is the first I've heard of this. Is it real? Any comments?
I've heard him referenced several times over the last month, my understanding is that he helped make sure that the micro parties preferenced each other before the majors and hence increasing the likelihood of wildcards getting elected.
ReplyDeleteA quick google shows a few articles including the micro parties involved in his arrangement:
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/minnows-go-fishing--for-a-senate-spot-20130809-2rms4.html
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-05/bitter-dispute-erupts-over-senate-preferences-in-queensland/4939300
Also, I would direct you to this article by a Crikey journalist, investigative sleuth Andrew Crook:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crikey.com.au/2013/08/22/revealed-the-libertarian-rights-micro-party-links/
I think it is appalling that parties can get elected after receiving just 0.2 or 0.5% of the vote.
ReplyDeleteThere were a lot of people who didn't want to vote for any of the major parties. OK, it's a bit random which micro party was successful, but if people wanted a major party they would have voted for one.
DeleteRemember that a minor party only matters when the majors disagree on a particular issue, which may suggests merit on both sides of the argument, we hope. But at any rate, it suggests that an extra seat for one major or the other wouldn't guarantee better decision making.
I'm not sure where I stand here. I think I have more of a problem with one person or group having control of 4 senate parties thus a voting bloc not immediately clear. That is something that needs reformed (as per info in the crickey article) firs,t imo.
DeleteThat said, using WA as an example it is clear that LDP have done some deal with ASP too, which implies Glenn Dreury involvement, so there is cause for concern there.
Another look at it is that what Glenn Dreury is doing is great for the "little man" and at least he's testing out the system and any holes such as these, will get manoeuvred out by lawyers very quickly!
Are you able to test what the Victorian outcome would have been if Rise Up had preferenced FF ahead of AMEP? (Noting that the Rise Up leader is a former FF candidate.)
ReplyDeleteI know FF would have collected most of the votes sitting with AMEP as well as Palmer's, but the question is whether surplus ALP/Green votes would have put Palmer ahead.
Sure - I will do this tonight after work. Check back around 9pm.
DeleteAfter RUA eleimination, DEM is the next candidate eliminated. This is also true in the alternative scenario (swapping RUA prefs from AMEP to FF)
DeleteIn the alternative scenario, AMEP is next eliminated, then PUP, then ALP. Then, GRN1 is elected.
SXP is then eliminated, and after this point none of the eliminations are close. The final decision is just a straight battle, with 0.1% vote difference between LNP3 and FF1 - in Quotas terms, LNP3 beats FF1 by 1.009 quotas to 0.991.
Practically, I can say if RUA gave #15 preference to FF and #23 to AMEP, it would be a 50-50 call between whether the LNP3 or FF won the 6th spot. The first 5 still would have been 2 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN.
Thanks for checking that one out. We psephologists could just a bout write a book on this senate election!
DeleteFar more interesting than HoR, and far more important! :-)
DeleteI'm not sure these single issue parties have much to offer, but if we had true representative democracy across 226 seats in federal politics, 0.5% would imply a single seat. The only reason it is of concern is because of the political power that comes with holding the balance of power in a two party duopoly.
ReplyDeleteBut yes, Glenn Druery is an ass.
Just one thing to point out regarding Victoria. There is 0.3 percent of the vote from 5 parties that are below the line only. That is going to play absolute havoc with the early eliminations, and also near the end of the count. It needs to (somehow) be taken into consideration, and isn't in the major projections.
ReplyDeleteYes, considering implementing a BTL prediction model! :-) Might take me a few days - busy at work 8-6 so only have limited hours to model this.
DeleteI apply a higher variation than is actually expected to effectively model some more exotic what-ifs than is anticipated. Trying to anticipate the havoc, but I'll see the progress I make this week...