Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Sunday, 8 September 2013

WA Senate update - 61% counted

For the fourth state in our series, we analyse election likelihoods in WA.

Results are as follows:

Almost Certain:
3 LNP, 1 ALP

GRN: 80% likely
SPORT: 52% likely

Outside chances:
PUP: 38% likely
ALP: 21% likely
LDP: 10% likely

- The Sport Party have polled exceptionally well - 0.2%, and look set to take a senate seat on the back of 2000-3000 votes. In fact, the Sport Party have not even outpolled Craig Thomson.
- The LDP again had a positive ballot draw, group B, and this lead to them polling 3% on primaries and having an outside chance of election in WA.
- As expected, David Wirrpanda has not succeeded in his goal to get elected to the Senate.

We're almost reaching the point where the senate would be more representative if it were chosen like conscription in the days of old - just by drawing lots from a hat.


  1. The Sport Party is almost eliminated twice - at count 9 ahead by 0.03% and at count 12 by 0.02%.
    Would it be possible to simulate by varying the Rise Up and Climate Sceptic votes?

    1. Yes that's what my model effectively does. It varies the vote of micro parties by +/-15% of their primary vote, and of major parties by 4%.

      These ranges are fairly large - this is deliberate. If a candidate is deemed by the model to be 100% likely it is indeed very likely and no amount of minor variation will affect this.

      In regards this scenario you refer to, this is why my model does not give 100% likelihood for Sport.

  2. Hi,

    Is the following a fair summary of your current prediction?

    Regards, Ben

    ALP NSW 2
    ALP QLD 1
    ALP QLD 80%
    ALP SA 1
    ALP SA 74%
    ALP TAS 2
    ALP VIC 2
    ALP WA 1
    ALP WA 21%

    DEM NSW 5.9%

    FF QLD 27%
    FF SA 40%
    FF TAS 0.1%
    FF VIC 1.9%

    GRN NSW 6.8%
    GRN QLD 40%
    GRN SA 50%
    GRN TAS 1
    GRN VIC 1
    GRN WA 80%

    KAP QLD 1%

    LDP NSW 1
    LDP WA 10%

    LNP NSW 2
    LNP NSW 80.5%
    LNP QLD 2
    LNP QLD 50%
    LNP TAS 2
    LNP TAS 7%
    LNP VIC 1.8%
    LNP VIC 2
    LNP WA 3

    Motoring Enthusiast Party VIC 96%

    No Carbon Tax SA 31%

    PUP NSW 0.6%
    PUP QLD 96%
    PUP SA 5%
    PUP WA 38%

    Palmer United TAS 81%

    SFP NSW 6.2%

    SPORT WA 52%

    SXP TAS 11%

    Shooters TAS 0.4%

  3. Assume the PUP percentage is high as they effectively harvest SPORT votes in the event SPORT goes out in the early counts (current ABC calculator shows them twice getting to 2nd last on the exclusion count).

    And then LDP if both PUP and SPORT are excluded.

  4. One thing - the current totals do not appear to include postal and pre-poll votes yet. I would expect the postals in particular to favour the major parties and therefore I wonder if the ALP vote could rise up to two quotas, changing the game completely. Is it possible to tweak the variability in your model to bias the weighting towards the majors in the remaining votes?

    (My reasoning is this: the majors both run campaigns to get people to apply for postal votes. Both postal and pre-poll votes require some degree of planning ahead. I can't imagine the young bogans I overheard laughing about how funny it was that they could vote for the HEMP party having the forethought to do either.)

  5. Actually - I had a look at the WA 2010 results and found that the other vote types were actually lower than the ordinary vote for the ALP. Also - the ALP would need to get about 31-32% of the REMAINING votes left to be counted to get up to 2 quotas, compared to the 27% it's getting at the moment - an increase of 15-20% over its current rate. This leads me to think that it's pretty unlikely that they will reach 2 quotas.