I have updated my calculation of primary votes to allow for the latest polls, and slightly tweaked my method for calculating minor party support to allow for more national consistency.
See my previous post for the method I use within my model.
Most likely elected Senate (Victoria):
1 GRN, 2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 FF
LNP: 38.5% (+/-2.0%)
ALP: 33.9% (+/-1.8%)
GRN: 12.3% (+/-1.8%)
Minor parties: 15.3% comprising selected parties
FF: 2.3% (+/-1.1%)
WIKI: 0.9% (+/-0.45%)
Bullet Train: 0.09% (+/-0.045%) (see below for why I include this party)
Likelihood of election:
LNP: 2 elected, +17% chance of 3rd senator
ALP: 2 elected, +1% chance of 3rd senator
GRN: 99% likelihood
Bullet Train: 2%
Bank Reform: 0.1%
3 Left, 3 Right: 98% likely
4* Left, 2 Right: 2% likely
*assuming the Bullet Train crew are more “Left” than “Right” - does anyone know?
- Victoria appears set to elect a Family First senator… again! This can happen with FF vote being as low as 1%, depending on how other micro parties poll.
- Despite other pundits predicting an Assange Wikileaks victory, this remains highly unlikely even when the Wikileaks primary vote is as high as 1.35%.
- The scary prospect for Australians is the slim chance of “Bullet Train Australia” party. According to my inputs, they are the 5th most likely party to be elected to the Senate from Victoria. While we don’t know that they’ll do a bad job, it is a big unknown. I have commented previously about how democracy fails when any system allows for the election of any party with a minute small percentage of the vote. In Bullet Train’s case, as little as 0.1% or 4000 votes. This makes Family First’s estimated 1% seem massive, which it isn't.
As the state is the best in a 2PP sense for Labor, you would expect the guaranteed 3-3 split from Victoria, with a slim chance of 4-2 split is just about as good as it gets...
Over the coming days, I will publish equivalent summaries for other states. I won’t talk about the methodology – this is largely covered in prior posts. On election day, I will publish my full results, updated for latest polling data.