Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Saturday, 7 September 2013

ACT Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the final jurisdiction in my senate series – ACT.

Most likely elected Senate (ACT):

1 ALP, 1 LNP

I am constantly updating my calculation of primary votes to allow for the latest polls, and this data will be updated during election day and beyond to allow for the latest poll data to be incorporated.

The ACT Senate has historically tempted the Greens, but they have never had success. To do so, they need the primary vote of the Liberal Party and the Animal Justice party vote to sum to less than 33.3%. Note that the Animal Justice Party has the Donkey (vote) for this election.

Primary votes:
LNP:      32% (+/-3.2%)
ALP:      38% (+/-3.8%)
GRN:      19% (+/-3.8%)
Minor parties 11% comprising selected parties:
PUP:      3% (+/-1.5%)
SXP:      2.5% (+/-1.3%)
Animal Justice Party:      1.5% (+/-0.8%)

Likelihood of election:
ALP: 100%
LNP: 67%
GRN: 33%

Ideological splits:
2 Left, 0 Right: 33%
1 Left, 1 Right: 67%

In this election, the ACT represents a minor threat to the Liberal Party, who may lose a senator in the nation’s capital. Late news of public sector job cuts may contribute to a Labor gain.

This blog has been harsh on minor candidates undertaking a preference harvest to upseat better polling competitors. On this basis, it would be disappointing if the greens get elected whilst polling sub 20 and the Liberal party polls 30+.

NSW: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 3 LNP
QLD: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 PUP
NT: 1 ALP, 1 LNP

TAS: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 3 LNP
WA: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 3 LNP
SA: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 1 XEN, 2 LNP
VIC: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 FF
Running total: 6 GRN, 14 ALP, 1 XEN, 17 LNP, 1 FF, 1 PUP


  1. And the final result, adding in continuing senators, becomes:
    Continuing: 6 GRN, 13 ALP, 16 LNP, 1 DLP
    Total: 12 GRN, 27 ALP, 1 XEN, 33 LNP, 1 DLP, 1 FF, 1 PUP

    That "most likely" outcome gives Labor and the Greens 39 votes combined. Not exactly democratic, if a near tie in 2010 plus a Coalition landslide in 2013 were to produce a "Left" majority Senate!

    Of course, there are plausible variations where Labor plus the Greens reach only 37 seats:
    * Greens lose in 2 of SA, Qld, NSW and WA (chances of winning 65-83% each)
    * Greens lose in 1 of SA, Qld, NSW and WA, while Labor loses in NT (chance of winning 52%)

  2. Many, many people vote differently in the senate a opposed to the house. To say that a right landslide in the lower house giving rise to a left senate is undemocratic is simply wrong!

    What I do however agree with is the degree to which very small, or micro parties can get elected or skew the results with an above the line vote and - as is the case - no 'truth in preference deals' because access to how to votes essentially doesn't exist.

  3. A 50/50 vote in 2010, and (say) 54/46 in 2013 averages out at 52% right, 48% left. Seems to me that an evenly divided senate is exactly the democratic result...

  4. In 2010, in the senate, "Left" outpolled "Right" 48% to 41% (,_2010). Lower house might have been a near tie, but the upper house was a Labour/Green landslide.