Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Friday, 20 September 2013

Senate update - 20-9-13 - Part 1 - WA

Yesterday, I pointed out the critical points of the WA Senate election. Tonight I add a new critical point that could result in the election of Jim Fryar from the LDP.

(Tonight, I will also attempt to update the NSW Senate count - this is just as interesting as WA and should not be written off as a fait accompli).

Note that the two likely outcomes are either
- Sport Party's Wayne Dropulich AND Green's Scott Ludlum; OR
- ALP's Louise Pratt AND PUP's Zhenya Wang

Current WA Count: 87.3% (up from 84.5% yesterday)

1. Sport vs NCT
Sport's lead is 281 votes and increasing.

2. Sport vs RUA
Sport's lead here is 310 votes and increasing - it looks clear at this point.

3. Animal Justice vs HEMP
Recapping, if Animal Justice overtake HEMP, this effectively "locks in" election of Dropulich and Ludlam. Last night, HEMP led Animal Justice by 117 votes. Tonight, the lead is 77 votes. Will it get to zero by end of counting? Perhaps BTLs will be important... Note that:
- HEMP's vote is all ticket vote, limiting any impact of leakage.
- Animal Justice includes approx 3500 votes transferred from the Democrats, a party which is usually an outlier for having a high % of BTL votes. If the DEM BTL is 10%, this could erode 350 votes from any lead that Animal Justice may accrue.
In summary, Animal Justice overtaking HEMP appears unlikely after considering BTLs

4. Shooters vs Christians
The next critical point in the WA count is the point where, currently, the Christians lead the Shooters by 45 votes, down from 183 votes. If the Shooters catch the Christians, which is seemingly increasingly likely, then this flips the result and most likely elects Pratt/Wang

Like shonky reality TV, there is another twist. This only applies if the Shooters catch the Christians.

5. LDP vs PUP
At a later point, there is a PUP vs LDP elimination. Yesterday, the gap was 0.12% or approx 1500 votes and further consideration did not seem worthwhile. But today, we're seeing the now-familiar decline of PUP vote as early votes are added to the count, and this gap (albeit dependent on above eliminations) is down to approx 0.09% or 1100 votes today. If this happens, we have a new scenario - elected is Jim Fryar of the LDP and Louise Pratt of the ALP.

1100 votes is a big gap, but we are seeing the PUP vote free-fall.

Wow. This is getting a bit crazy. Applying each step sequentially appears to point to the following results, based on the currently counted vote:
50/50 chance of LDP and PUP

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for your brilliant work! So you're saying that if the Shooters catch the Christians a PUP and a Pratt will be elected!!