Yesterday, I pointed out the critical points of the WA Senate election. Today, I refine my numbers using actual BTL votes to calculate revised margins at the critical points.
Recall that the two likely outcomes are either
- Sport Party's Wayne Dropulich AND Green's Scott Ludlum; OR
- ALP's Louise Pratt AND PUP's Zhenya Wang
Current WA Count: 88.4% (up from 87.3% yesterday)
1. Sport vs NCT
Sport's lead is 288 votes and increasing. This is so big it is no longer a real "critical point" so today will be the last time I report on this.
2. Sport vs RUA
Sport's lead here is 323 votes and rising. Again, I won't report on this in the future.
3. Animal Justice vs HEMP
Recapping, if Animal Justice overtake HEMP, this effectively "locks in" Dropulich and Ludlam.
HEMP leads AJP by 55 votes (was 77 votes yesterday and 117 votes on Thursday).
BTLs: HEMP vote is all ticket, AJP vote includes 3,568 Democrat votes, including at least 275 BTL votes. I think HEMP and AJP are in the market for the same voters, so I think best to model this by taking out the 275 BTLs and stating that unless AJP can exceed HEMP by this amount they will actually be behind.
Although it may appear on the ABC calculator that AJP has overtaken HEMP, it is not likely to be the case unless the margin exceeds approx 300. I calculate current margin at 326 votes.
4. Shooters vs Christians
If Shooters catch the Christians, then PUP/ALP likely to be elected instead of SPORTS/GREEN. Current margin is 43 votes (was 45 yesterday and 183 on Thursday).
BTLs: Including BTLs, and treating all unapportioned votes as ticket votes, I calculate a 270 vote lead to the Christians. But, then we need to think psychologically, something no model can predict. How will BTLs from other groups flow? Are Shooters or Christians more likely to be advantaged by general BTLs? Thoughts welcome!
5. LDP vs PUP
The final critical point is a PUP vs LDP elimination. If LDP leapfrogs PUP, then LDP and ALP win the final two spots. The calculator gap is approx 800 votes (19/9: 1500 votes, 20/9: 1100 votes)
BTLs: With all unapportioned treated as ticket votes, I calculate the PUP lead increasing substantially to 1616 votes. Are there enough votes remaining to boost the LDP vote? Unlikely...
Very close again. I won't be so bold as to call this for the ALP. I also wouldn't rule out LDP winning a spot here too.