This post is just a brief update of the current status of the WA Senate election.
Regular readers will be aware of the three critical eliminations in the WA Senate count: (I no longer consider the RUA vs Sport eliminations critical - the margin is way to large to be overturned at this stage).
1. Hemp vs Animal Justice
If Animal Justice lead, it locks in a GRN/SPORT combo for election to the final two spots
Applying the methodology I used to forecast the Tasmanian result, I currently have HEMP ahead by 688 votes. Note that the ABC calculator underestimates this lead, as assuming all votes are Above the Line produces a margin of 268.
Assessment: Hemp leading significantly and unlikely to be overturned. This "escape valve" for GRN/SPORT appears unlikely to bear fruit.
2. Shooters vs Christians
If the Shooters catch the Christians, a PUP and a Pratt get elected instead of GRN/Sports.
The Calculator is displaying a 296 vote lead to the Shooters, but applying a more sensible vote estimate puts the Christians ahead by a minuscule 60 votes. I get nervous trying to make assessments when the margin is 0.0046% of total vote.
Assessment: I have to say too close to call, but the Christians lead is helping Scott Ludlam of the Greens.
3. PUP vs LDP
I believe I am the only psephologist taking this elimination seriously, but I note the ABC calculator is currently showing a PUP with a 75 vote lead. IF above analysis shows that ALP/PUP is likely to get elected, then the consequence of LDP catching PUP is that the final two spots will instead be won by LDP and ALP. However, taking less notice of uncommitted BTLs leads to a current effective margin of 1322 votes. Therefore, the ABC calculator may flip in the next day or so and apparently show a victory to LDP & ALP. If so, don't believe it unless the margin is well in excess of 1000.
Assessment: I will keep a watching brief on this as the ABC calculator may shortly show LDP overtaking PUP. However - don't believe it! BTLs will influence the final outcome here.
How absurd that our fine representative democracy has come to this!
The LDP seem to have closed the gap with PUP quite quickly. Any news on the rate of change in their respective vote, and the consequence if that rate of change continues for the remainder of the count?
ReplyDeleteThis is consistent with what we observed closely in tasmania - falling Pup vote and rising ldp vote. I think the gap's too big, but I just can't quite quantify it now. .. I'll investigate tonight if time allows.
DeleteSo working off the ABC calculator - how big a lead to the Shooters would it need to show for you to feel confident that the Shooters really did have a lead? 350+? Something else?
ReplyDelete356 based on current data. This wouldn't give me confidence but it would tell me the lead had truly flipped
DeleteIn your adjustment to the shooters lead on the calculator, what assumptions are you making to actually have the Christians in front? I presume you are adjusting BTL votes retained?
ReplyDeleteYes, I'm assuming zero BTL votes flow, so I'm only applying ticket votes via the Group Voting Tickets.
DeleteIt's easy enough to calculate the number of BTL votes that could leak FROM either of those critical candidates, much harder to estimate the votes that could leak TO them.
ReplyDeleteWe can of course try and guess...
Secular voters probably won't pick the Christians, Animal Justice voters probably won't pick the Shooters... that's about as much critical insight as I could be bothered with today!
Yes, there's a few obvious ones but it's all in the quantum - how much more likely is it that a wikileaks BTL voter will put the Christians ahead of the shooters? Just create a quasi transition matrix and multiply!
Delete... good plan. Will you have this matrix complete for your 10pm update?
DeletePartially complete now.. Will post tonight even if it's incomplete
DeleteWow. I wasn't serious.
DeleteYou are.
Awesome.
Id assume that a wikileaks BTL voter would be most likely to land with the greens so wouldn't be relevant for either the shooter v christians contest.
DeleteI would expect Family First to BTL the Australian Christians and Australian Fishing and Lifestyle and KAP to preference the Shooters.
ReplyDeleteI would guess that a fair few FF BTL's would also land with the Libs and Lib Dems and would park there until after the distribution.
DeleteTruthseeker, is there anything left in the NSW senate race? I have read that there is a 70%/15%/15% chance that the Liberals/Democrats/Shooters, respectively, will pick up the seat.What odds would you give if you had to put it into percentage terms? Thanks
ReplyDeleteThey're not my numbers, I think they may be slightly overstated but I'll be analysing this in my post later tonight. I haven't looked really really closely at NSW recently.
DeleteWhere'd you hear these likelihoods?
I think it may have been geekLection and the figures may be somewhat exaggerated (maybe it is more like 80/10/10?), not being a modeller myself I wouldn't have the faintest clue. Cheers for the response.
DeletegeekLection's website is busted.
ReplyDeleteGood assessment at this stage of the count. But would like to see your working of the distribution of BTL votes. osure I can agree with your assesmsent split of leakage. The Notional Greens BTL vote has more chance of leaking then the Notional ALP vote.
ReplyDeleteThis is a seat where segmentation and calculation of the surplus value will have an impact