QLD Senate update - 66% counted

For the final state in the Truth Seeker series, we use closing election day figures in QLD.

Here are the results of the QLD half Senate election




Almost certain:
1 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 PUP
(My model is giving a 100% likelihood of these 4 getting elected
The final two seats will split – one “Left” and one “Right”

Very likely:
LNP 3rd candidate: 95% likely
ALP 2nd candidate 99% likely

Outside chances
Australian Independents 4% likely
HEMP Party 1.5% likely
KAP: 0.6% likely
GRN: 0.3% likely

There were several polls showing an increase of PUP vote late in the campaign. The epicentre of this was Queensland, and the magnitude was strong.

However, there still remains an outside chance of LNP being restricted to two QLD senators, however the LNP should be likely to elect three senators.