After analysing the near final AEC figures, PUP's Jacqui Lambie is likely to win the final senate spot.
The first critical elimination is that of the Sex Party vs Labor.
Sex Party is 1100 votes behind at this point and the breakdown of available BTL votes is as follows:
- Left: 950
- Right: 3187
- Other/Central: 441
Given that these BTL prefs will need to be distributed across the six parties remaining in the count at this time (SXP, LDP, ALP, LNP, PUP, GRN) and there is significant competition for the small number of left wing votes, it is near impossible for Sex Party to bridge this gap.
The next critical elimination is the PUP vs LDP. Although less clear, PUP has a gap of 694 on guaranteed votes. The remaining votes are:
Right: 3240 (incl SFP, AFLP, Country Alliance, Katter - all likely to show a PUP bias)
(These are the BTL votes of all parties previously excluded up to this point of elimination)
Note that the left vote is much lower, as all left BTLs have been incorporated into the Green surplus, which as a result of Inclusive Gregory method get overwhelmed by the ALP ticket ballots which soak up all the left BTL's value. Also note that these preferences need only to be divided amongst three parties.
So the question is whether the PUP v LDP gap of 694 can be overcome by the remaining votes? This split will be critical. A fair chunk of these BTLs will go the LNP, but I still believe that PUP will have enough support to bridge this gap.
PUP to narrowly win the final Tasmanian Senate Seat.