A lot more counting in the Senate today, as we move closer towards having some more results
My monte carlo simulations are showing the following probabilities of election for the final seat:
At the heart of this, as explained earlier, is the gap between AMEP and FF at an early stage of elimination. Today, it has reduced from 480 to 440.
Dropulich (Sports Party) continues to poll well in late counting, particularly absentee votes. Given WA has a high percentage of absent votes compared to other states, I wonder if this is due to youngish men on FIFO mining jobs voting outside their electorates? Hence, would it make sense to consider these voters to be more of people feeling disenfranchised, and more likely to throw a vote to "Sports Party?" The vote for Sports in WA Absent votes is significantly higher (0.33% vs 0.22%) so unless there is a very high "Voice Party" BTL%, WA is looking increasingly safe for Dropulich.
Appears extremely close, between PUP and LNP for the final spot.
Looking quite safe - 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 PUP
Looking safe. Monte Carlo model showing 100%, indicating near impossibility of any other result.
Monte Carlo analysis of this state shows a 16% chance of election by No Carbon Tax. However, this probably overstates NCT's chance of election. At the end of count 29, Family First's Bob Day (4.00%) exceeds Lib Dems of 3.75%. Unusually, these are mainly all ticket votes so there's not too much BTL action to consider. If anything, it is unlikely that other parties' BTLs will flow to Lib Dems over FF. On the other hand, Lib Dems seem to be doing better on Declaration votes as is the case in NSW. On balance, it is unlikely for there to be a switch here, so Bob Day looks relatively safe.
As outlined previously, very safe 1-1 in each case. This is despite ALP's Nova Peris in NT and the LIB's Zed Seselja in ACT will receive enough preferences to win.