Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Friday, 6 September 2013

NSW Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the seventh and penultimate jurisdiction in my senate series – NSW.

Most likely elected Senate (NSW):

2 ALP, 3 LNP, 1 GRN,

I am constantly updating my calculation of primary votes to allow for the latest polls, and this data will be updated during election day to allow for the latest poll data to be incorporated.

The NSW Senate is the first Senate election in Australia to have 100 candidates. Accordingly, the minor party vote will be much higher, with this share of vote splintered across a variety of parties with a colourful range of name including pirates, animal justice, bullet trains, hemp and voluntary euthanasia. Imagine the policy conundrums if these parties merged, but in conducting tight preference deals they are effectively allowing their votes to be merged. This is arguably well beyond the mandate give to these parties by voters giving the parties a little “1” above the line.

Like Queensland, multiple parties have a chance of election – the final winners may as well be determined by lottery. But applying the appropriate methodology (see earlier post), we can attempt to determine the likelihood of each party being elected, starting with forecast primary votes and conducting a little spot of Monte Carlo analysis.

Primary votes:
LNP:      39.8% (+/-3.0%)
ALP:      31.7% (+/-2.4%)
GRN:      8.5% (+/-1.3%)
Minor parties 20% comprising selected parties:
PUP:      3.2% (+/-1.6%)
LDP:      2% (+/-1%)
CDP, KAP, SXP, ONP:      1.6% (+/-0.8%) each
No CSG:      0.8% (+/-0.6%)
DEM, FF:      0.4% (+/-0.2%) each
Building Australia:      0.2% (+/-0.1%)
Stable Population:      0.08% (+/-0.04%)

Likelihood of election:
LNP: 2, with 91% chance of 3rd candidate being elected
ALP: 2
Other parties have varying chances of election
GRN: 78% likely
ONP: 19%
Building Australia: 3%
At least 1% likely: KAP, No CSG
At least 0.1%: PUP, LDP, DEM, SXP, SPP, CDP

Ideological splits:
3 Left, 3 Right: 79% likely
2 Left, 1 Independent, 3 Right: 4% likely
2 Left, 4 Right: 16% likely

Another case of rolling the dice – my Monte Carlo analysis has indicated at least a dozen parties have a chance at winning a senate seat.

The Building Australia Party may get elected if they receive 0.2% - that is 10,000 out of NSW’s 5,000,000 votes. The Stable Population Party may get elected if they receive just 4,000 votes or 0.08%. This is the risk voters take if they vote for a cute three word slogan instead of a party with real values and policies. Again, I will be awaiting final polling figures before ruling out PUP – their vote has increased this week – but to what extent?

NSW represents a small chance of giving the “Right” a valuable 4-2 advantage, with Pauline Hanson an outside chance of election. With the recent surge in PUP, it is possible that my model is overstating Pauline Hanson’s chance of election.

Next is ACT. Tomorrow, I will make final updates in the afternoon based on all the final polls.

Summaries so far:
NSW: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 3 LNP
QLD: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 PUP
NT: 1 ALP, 1 LNP
TAS: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 3 LNP
WA: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 3 LNP
SA: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 1 XEN, 2 LNP
VIC: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 FF
Running total: 6 GRN, 13 ALP, 1 XEN, 16 LNP, 1 FF, 1 PUP

1 comment:

  1. Do the Greens' chances depend mostly on the combined Labor + Greens vote? I'm assuming that 78% probability comes from the Greens winning in most simulations where the combined ALP+GRN vote is over 38%, and losing in most simulations where it's under 38%.