Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Saturday, 14 September 2013

Senate results - 14-9-13 - 10pm update

Welcome to my latest daily 10pm update of Monte Carlo simulated Senate forecasts.

Today was an unfortunately quiet day on the count with two states having additional count, two states having no additional count and two states, gosh, recording a lower percentage of votes counted today than yesterday!! (I think this was partially due to a series of recounts and vote apportionment from above to below the line... but I’m not certain. If you know, please leave in comments.

But I’ll press on regardless with regular features.

The forecast summary is as follows:

I must continue to point out that my model is calculating the 3rd Liberal candidate as “most likely” to win the state of Tasmania. However, applying a crude assessment of BTL votes, I believe that this remains “too close to call”, with perhaps the PUP’s Jacqui Lambie as more likely to win than lose. The table above represents model output, and I have not manually overridden the table with my most likely expectation.

Here is the detailed table with percentage likelihoods of each candidate winning:

Daily changes in vote: No change in vote today
Yesterday's analysis remains valid.

Daily changes in vote
Total: 76.62% to 76.6% (backwards by 0.02%)
LNP: -0.01%

Don’t know what’s going on with backwards states today, but note there is no change to the forecast senators elected from NSW – 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 LDP.

Daily changes in vote:
Total: 72.7% to 72.9%
LNP: +0.04%
ALP: -0.02%
GRN -0.02%
The six senators, 2 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN and Ricky Muir from AMEP appear locked in.

Daily changes in vote:
Total: 70.46 to 70.32%, yes, backwards approximately 5000 votes.
LNP: -0.04%

HEMP’s likelihood of election and hence unseating the 2nd ALP candidate is now up to 1.4%, according to my model. Clearly, 1.4% likelihood is never a “likely” scenario as it relies, in this case, on the ALP vote dipping below 2 quotas or 28.58%. Taking BTL’s into account, probably 28.3% would be enough for ALP to win the final Senate spot. Current ALP vote in QLD is 28.86%, and rising!

Daily changes in vote:
Total: 66.4% to 68.4%
LNP: -0.04%
ALP: +0.14%
GRN: -0.11%
NAT: -0.04%
No other party’s vote changed by more than +/-0.01%

Wayne Dropulich, Sports Party, now only has a 73% chance of election, according to my model. At a critical point in elimination, count 12 according to the ABC Senate calculator, Dropulich leads the RUA candidate by just 250 votes, including 864 preferences votes received from Australian Voice. Although my modelling is forecasting an estimated Voice BTL% of 7.3% (that is, 7.3% of voice votes to be below the line), I’m still inclined to believe a much higher BTL commensurate with the micro party status of Voice. If we assume a 7.3% to 20% range, the current lead of Sports Party is 80-190 votes.

Daily changes in vote: zero

Next update: Approx 24 hours, 11pm AEST ! See you there!!

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