WA Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the third state in my senate series – Western Australia. I have decided to do WA next to give myself an extra day of time to determine the impact Clive Palmer will have on QLD and NSW.

Most likely elected Senate (WA):



1 GRN, 2 ALP, 3 LNP

I am constantly updating my calculation of primary votes to allow for the latest polls, and slightly tweaked my method for calculating minor party support to allow for more national consistency. Variation is also slightly higher to represent more uncertainty than was previously allowed for.

Primary votes:
LIB:       40.8% (+/-3.3%)
ALP:      27.4% (+/-2.1%)
GRN:      11.1% (+/-1.7%)
NAT:      4.5% (+/- 1.1%)
Minor parties:       16.1% comprising selected parties:
PUP:      3.6% (+/-1.8%)
LDP:      1.8% (+/-0.9%)
SXP:      1.0% (+/-0.5%)
Shooters and Fishers, DEM, Christians:      0.6% (+/-0.3%) each
No Carbon Tax, Sport:      0.12% (+/-0.06%) each


Likelihood of election:
LIB:      3 elected
ALP:      1 elected, and a 64% chance of 2nd senator
GRN:      83% likelihood
PUP:      32%
SXP:      10%
LDP:      6%
SFP:      2%
No Carbon Tax:      2%
DEM:      1%
SPORT:      0.2%
NAT:      0.2% (A poor result for a vote in the range of 3.4% to 5.6%)
Christians:      0.1%

Everyone else: 0

Ideological splits:
3 Left, 3 Right: 58% likely
2 Left, 4 Right: 42% likely

Summary:
- One ALP, Three LNP, almost certainly
- Greens and Labor will both get elected about half the time
- If not enough “Left” votes, then it becomes a right wing lottery.
- David Wirrpanda (NAT) cannot even get elected with a high vote
- PUP is most likely non-major “Right” party
- An unlikely but possible outcome is the election of the Sport Party, No Carbon Tax, or possibly a different Right micro party.

Unlike the previous two states, WA represents the best chance for the coalition to “make up” a senate seat by securing a 4-2 Right outcome. However, if this were to occur it would be with the unpredictable PUP holding perhaps 2 senators. The Coalition would much prefer a conventional conservative, like FF or DLP, but may have to work outside the box in negotiating safe passage of bills with Clive Palmer.

Over the coming days, I will publish equivalent summaries for other states. I won’t talk about the methodology – this is largely covered in prior posts. On election day, I will republish my full final results, updated for latest polling data.


Summaries so far:
WA: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 3 LNP
SA: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 1 XEN, 2 LNP
VIC: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 FF
Running total: 3 GRN, 6 ALP, 1 XEN, 7 LNP, 1 FF