Part 2 of tonight's update relates to NSW's Senate election.
I throw another potential winner into the mix tonight...
Current count: 89.39% (yesterday was 87.63%)
1: Bullet vs FF
Bullet Train currently lead FF by 306. This enables future analysis. (Yesterday, BT trailled FF by 119). The lead will probably need to be approx 160 to withstand BTL effects.
2: DEM vs Animal Justice
AJP currently leads DEM by 180 votes (was 260 yesterday). But DEM will need to lead by a fair bit here to turn around this critical point, as DEM has more potentially loseable BTLs.
3: HEMP vs AMEP
AMEP currently lead by HEMP by appr 80 votes (was approx 65 votes yesterday). But note that HEMP is heavily favoured by losing less BTLs, so HEMP will likely win this battle if it gets this far.
4: DEM vs SXP
SXP currently lead DEM by appr 400 votes (down from 800 yesterday). But DEMs have more loseable BTLs, so will probably need to be up by 1600 votes to win this challenge.
New Critical Point:
If the count runs this way, then Arthur Sinodinos (LIB) will not get elected - it's all about who will win the 6th spot in this case. This new critical point is one which I did not consider critical yesterday as the gap was a large 2000 votes.
5: LNP vs SFP
If SFP survives this elimination, they will likely win the final spot from the Democrats. If they don't, the Democrats will win.
Overnight, the Liberal vote in NSW dropped by 0.11%, turning a big lead into a big loss. BTLs will have an impact, and SFP is more vulnerable.
Conclusion
Too Close to call - Democrat, Liberal and Shooters and Fishers all in with a chance.
I can't make sense of your figures. I have Family Frist ahead of Bullet Train by 276 votes, Animal justice leading Dems by 241 votes, HEMP leading AMEP by 153 and SEX leading Dems by 987 votes on current count.
ReplyDeleteThese numbers were correct as of last night, and I have reconfirmed my calculations today. The problem is that the AEC "flipped" approx 500 votes from Bullet to Liberal. See my post today.
ReplyDeleteAll such data is correct at time of publication, and I cannot account for AEC errors that will appear from time to time.
(I get 240, 220, 1100 for the three margins now - the 500 vote flip made a very big difference! I wonder if there's any more flips coming?)
Don't the Dems do pretty well on BTLs from other parties due to their reputation as centrists? I'm wondering if "stolen" BTLs (that is, BTLs from parties which didn't preference the party ATL) could play a major role.
ReplyDeleteI think that stolen BTLs, particularly from the Pirate Party, could make the Sex-Labor critical point in TAS a lot closer (though I don't know if the Sex Party will have enough of a lead to win). This is impossible to model because neither party has contested TAS before, but it would be interesting to see how BTLs have flowed to the Dems from non-preferencing parties in the past in NSW.