Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Tuesday, 17 September 2013

Senate results - 10pm update

Brief update here tonight.

No predicted change:
Vic, Qld, SA, NT, ACT

Yesterday's readers of my blog would recall that the critical equation for the Sports Party's Dropulich is:

Sports + Voice > Rise Up

Where this condition holds, Dropulich will get elected, as will Ludlam (Greens). Where it fails, it is likely Pratt (Labor) and PUP's Zhenya Wang are likely to get elected in their place.

Yesterday, I posted this equation was on a knife edge.

Today, we have seen the first of the votes for the Provisional and additional votes for pre-poll and postal. The absentee votes have moved strongly in favour of the Sports Party's Dropulich (+16 net advantage out of 15000 votes) while the postals are trending less away from Dropulich (-13 / 34000). For completion, Provisionals are -5 / 700 and are neutral (+4 / 15000).

The remaining uncertainty is the Below the Line vote %. This time in WA there are 27 groups. Last time there were 22. The range of Group Voting  in the 2010 election for parties polling sub 0.5% was from 10.1% for CEC to 29% for the Secular Party. What percentage of Voice votes will be BTL? Given the large number of candidates still in play at Count 11, it is safe to assume that the net impact of BTL votes on the above equation will be zero, i.e. as many Voice BTLs go to Sport as go to Rise Up.

If the Voice BTL is 20% (upper end of expectations) Dropulich's current lead is 12 votes. This puts him in a safer position today compared to yesterday, especially if the assumption of a strong swing on declaration votes (an assumption that was perfectly valid yesterday) seems not to eventuate.

Current assessment: It's still very very close. Dropulich slightly ahead. This is reflected in my Monte Carlo simulations, showing that the Dropulich likelihood has increased from 60% to 61% overnight.

Currently, the ABC calculator is showing a win to the Sex Party. However, This is not a likely outcome. The SXP vote is full of minor party votes, which will leak significantly and likely lead to SXP elimination before the ALP is eliminated.

My hunch is then that the PUP candidate, Jacqui Lambie, will remain ahead of LDP after preferences securing her victory. I know my hunch is insignificant compared to excellent quantitative analysis of others, such as the indefatigable Dr Kevin Bonham.

My model was yesterday showing a very surprise result occurring in upwards of 20% of Monte Carlo simulations. Tonight, order appears restored. I will investigate tomorrow morning and post something by midday on Wednesday.


  1. I have updated Tas here:

    The article is getting so long and complex I have placed a summary at the start of it.

    Today I have looked at likely BTLs as it seems that the unapportioned are now exclusively or mostly BTL. I have also looked at the complexity of the BTLs that affect PUP and it all gets incredibly messy. An important issue here is that Labor BTLs are not of uniform value because their value at the time of the exclusion of Thorp depends on whether they have been through one or both of the Brown or Bilyk surpluses. Those going through the Bilyk surplus are much reduced in value, those going through the Brown surplus are worth about half a vote, but those that were 1 Thorp or 1 Dowling are worth a full vote when they leave Thorp. And there's a lot of those, so that's thousands of votes worth - except that they have to go to Lib or LDP ahead of both Green and PUP to "leak"; I'm not sure that many will.

    There is also severe oddness with the Pirate Party whose preferences get diddled by Inclusive Gregory and by being absorbed in a mostly hostile surplus.

    And Family First may be able to get over Sex (with respect to Mr Madden's history, pun unintended) if they can get a few hundred ATLs closer. They just don't look like doing it though, they've been making no inroads since I mentioned them.

    Can't pick it between Lib and PUP for the main chance; was leaning to PUP again a bit before this evening's crunching.

  2. Family First would have won in Victoria if Rise Up had preferenced them higher. It is interesting they didn't since the Rise Up candidate is a former Family First candidate.

    1. Hi Graham, I have just Fact Checked this statement and given RUA prefs to FF immediately. Sure, Danny Nialliah was a former FF candidate, but he has certainly made public statements of an interesting nature in the last couple of years. I'm not aware of any particular falling out.

      My model shows that this scenario results in the following elected candidates:
      2 LNP
      2 ALP
      1 GRN
      89% LNP
      6% AMEP
      5% FF

      So, I think the only thing RUA prefs could have done was elected Helen Kroger instead of the Ricky Muir the Motoring Enthusiast.