Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Sunday, 8 September 2013

TAS Senate update - 78% counted

For the third state in our series, we analyse election likelihoods in Tasmania.

Results are as follows:

Almost Certain:
2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 Green

Very Likely:
Palmer United: 81% likely

Outside chances:
SXP 11%
LNP 7% (3rd candidate)
Shooters: 0.4%
Family First: 0.1%

- Palmer United: Another state, another different minor party being elected.
- The prospect, albeit unlikely of a 4-2 Left-Right split is an appalling slight of democracy when 52% of Tasmanians voted for a Right candidate.


  1. If voters have done their homework isn't it just possible that Tasmanian's want to give LNP a go in the Reps and want a check on their otherwise absolute power in the Senate. I would say rather than a slight against democracy, it's either exactly as it should be,or people need to put more effort into their vote and vote below the line so that they specify exactly their order of preferences rather than leave them up to 'obscure' party preference deals!

  2. If voters had done their homework, people would have known that voting 1 Country Alliance means their vote went to the SXP. But this is by no means an expected outcome and arguably deceptive.

  3. A lot of Tasmanians vote below the line, this will weaken minor party harvesting and increases the lib chances somewhat