In addition to NSW, we have some near-final figures for Victoria too.
Here are the results of the VIC half Senate election
Almost Certain:
2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 Green
Very Likely:
Motoring Enthusiast Party: 96% likely
Outside chances:
Family First 1.9%
LNP 1.8% (this is the probability of the Liberal Party being elected to the final spot.
Interestingly,
- Motoring Enthusiasts: Taking up a powerful seat in a balance of power situation in the Senate. History will show that across Victoria they polled less votes than the Liberal candidate in Melbourne.
- Wikileaks: Unsurprisingly, Wikileaks polled just 1% of the vote and lawyers everywhere are disappointed for us having avoided what would have been an amusing series of High Court challenges and counter-challenges. Not elected, not even very close.
The Vic Senate election also contains a story about how our system of Senate election can deliver truly undemocratic outcomes. Yes, the Motoring Enthusiast Party has been elected with just 0.5% public support, a result you'd expect more in a third world country.
Thanks for your good work. The senate is the big story and some of the results are amazing.
ReplyDeleteI'd imagine 0.5% would be a record for a senate seat.
Surely an Australian record.
DeleteWA Senate may elect the Sport party on 0.2% of the vote.
DeleteOne solution to avoid turning 1 in 200 votes to 1 in 7 (a quota) by distribution of preferences is to limit the field to the leaders of the under quota field.
ReplyDeleteAll options about placing a limit on when candidates can and cannot be subject to election should definitely be consiered.
DeleteThink the nsw system of enabling above the line referencing more likely.
ReplyDeleteBy limiting who can get a quota you are denying the chance for a legitimate vote to count