Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Saturday, 7 September 2013

VIC Senate update - 61% counted

In addition to NSW, we have some near-final figures for Victoria too.

Here are the results of the VIC half Senate election

Almost Certain:
2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 Green

Very Likely:
Motoring Enthusiast Party: 96% likely

Outside chances:
Family First 1.9%
LNP 1.8% (this is the probability of the Liberal Party being elected to the final spot.

- Motoring Enthusiasts: Taking up a powerful seat in a balance of power situation in the Senate. History will show that across Victoria they polled less votes than the Liberal candidate in Melbourne.
- Wikileaks: Unsurprisingly, Wikileaks polled just 1% of the vote and lawyers everywhere are disappointed for us having avoided what would have been an amusing series of High Court challenges and counter-challenges. Not elected, not even very close.

The Vic Senate election also contains a story about how our system of Senate election can deliver truly undemocratic outcomes. Yes, the Motoring Enthusiast Party has been elected with just 0.5% public support, a result you'd expect more in a third world country.


  1. Thanks for your good work. The senate is the big story and some of the results are amazing.
    I'd imagine 0.5% would be a record for a senate seat.

    1. WA Senate may elect the Sport party on 0.2% of the vote.

  2. One solution to avoid turning 1 in 200 votes to 1 in 7 (a quota) by distribution of preferences is to limit the field to the leaders of the under quota field.

    1. All options about placing a limit on when candidates can and cannot be subject to election should definitely be consiered.

  3. Think the nsw system of enabling above the line referencing more likely.

    By limiting who can get a quota you are denying the chance for a legitimate vote to count