Senate update - 21-09-13 - Part 1 - NSW

Part 1 of tonight's update relates to NSW's Senate election.

If Family First vote moves either up or down, outside a narrow band, the contest is open.



Current count: 89.45% (yesterday was 89.40%)

Not a lot more counted today, but notably Bullet Train have less votes tonight than last night, as I posted about earlier. I think we can call this "the great Bullet Train robbery."

1: Bullet vs FF
FF currently lead Bullet Train by 240. Note that the sharp swing here is due to the AEC changing their numbers, flipping the likelihood of Bullet catching FF. But two days ago, FF led Bullet by 119, so this margin is apparently increasing.
(But if No Carbon Tax, 3rd last, is eliminated here, then this makes the rest of this article null and void and "locks in" the election of Sinodinos barring some wicked late counting or BTL shenanigans. Gap between NCT and Bullet is 250 votes, two days ago it was 528 so it is dropping rapidly!)

2: DEM vs Animal Justice
AJP currently leads DEM by 220 votes (was 180 yesterday). But DEM will need to lead by a fair bit here to turn around this critical point, as DEM has more potentially loseable BTLs.

3: HEMP vs AMEP
HEMP currently lead by AMEP by appr 150 votes (was trailing by approx 65 votes yesterday).

4: DEM vs SXP
SXP currently lead DEM by appr 1100 votes (up from 400 yesterday), following the Great Bullet Train Robbery earlier today. DEM has more loseable BTLs, so will probably need to be up by 1600 votes to win this challenge.

If each of the 4 italicised parties in the critical points above win, this enables either SFP or DEM to win the final seat - if 5 is won by LNP then Democrats win. If 5 is won by SFP, then SFP win the final senate seat.

5: LNP vs SFP
SFP currently lead by 2300 votes, but will lose 2000-4000 votes in BTL leakage.

If this was the whole story, you'd easily say Sinodinos was very likely to win. But...

Alternative path for SFP & DEM?
The key for DEM or SFP to win is to eliminate the Motoring Enthusiasts (AMEP) earlier rather than later, as AMEP mops up preferences in the middle stages denying DEM/SFP the opportunity to snowball. So there is another risk for Sinodinos.

1: FF v AMEP
AMEP currently lead FF by 610 votes (down from 800 two days ago). If this continues to reduce and is reversed, then SFP & DEM have a chance... So above, FF vote moving down helped DEM/SFP. Here, FF vote moving up helps DEM/SFP.

2: DEM vs SXP (See 4 above)

3: LNP vs SFP (See 5 above)


Conclusion
Pity about the changing AEC Vote tallies, but Sinodinos currently likely based on current votes. But realistic outside chance of Shooters or Democrat taking final seat.