Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Monday, 2 September 2013

Truth Seeker hits page 1 of The Sunday Age, most read story online

"Computer simulations by a professional financial modeller writing on online electoral sites as "the truth seeker" show that depending on the exact votes for each party and order of elimination, the Australian Democrats, the Sex Party, WikiLeaks, the Shooters and Fishers, the Liberal Democrats, and even the Stable Population Party have a chance of winning Senate seats."

Article by Tim Colebatch and Chris Johnson, Sunday 1 September 2013, Page 1.

Also, this story was also the #1 most read story on

Thanks to Crikey and Poll Bludger for providing me the initial platform to raise these potentially undemocratic outcomes.


  1. Hi truth seeker,

    Congrats! Could we get some updated projections for QLD with the new polls showing KAP down and PUP up? That looks like a fascinating race.

  2. I've modelled some new numbers, I'll have some published latee tonight. I put pup to 7, but even that may be too low

  3. Good to see that Antony Green has looked at your blog (

    Any comment on this Monte Carlo simulation finding the No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics are a 64% chance to get elected in SA from a base vote of 0.15% and potentially as low as 0.04%?

    COMMENT: The Xenophon and Green vote is way way too low.

    Posted by: Somerandomguy | September 01, 2013 at 08:39 PM

  4. Yep, it's a risk to put numbers up there and out there. I have slightly revised estimates and outcomes I will be publishing in the next 24 hours.

    Nationwide, in 2007 Greens polled 8% in HoR and 9% in senate. In 2007 in SA, they polled 7% in HoR and 6.5% in Senate. So, nationally their vote was about one-tenth higher in Senate, but in SA it was about one-tenth lower. This is due to Xenophon.

    This time, the Greens are on track to poll about 10% nationwide in HoR, but there is more minor party competition this time that will drop the vote of all the majors. So, 6-8% is a reasonable range for Green Senate vote.

    It's hard to predict X's vote. Senate polls are notoriously unreliable so I'm applying a wider range of variability to my expectations of X's vote.

    I have never said: NCT will definitely win. What I am saying is that they have a reasonable chance, and it is feasible with just 0.04% (although they will certainly poll higher).

    AJ - how much do you think X and Grns will poll? Happy to model numbers for these parties in line with your expectations.

  5. Agree with your comment about polling - was always hoping the ABC would release their Vote Compass Senate Intentions counts but that hasn't happened as yet.

    My view would be that the Green's result will fall somewhere between their 2007 and 2010 result, so probably around the 9-10% range, hard to say if there will be any difference between SHY as lead candidate versus Penny Wright but I'd say probably not (although SHY does attract some negative attention).

    13.31% - 2010 Federal Election (Penny Wright elected)
    6.64% - 2010 State Legislative Council Election
    6.49% - 2007 Federal Election (SHY elected)

    I think X will get pretty close to a quota in his own right - probably around the 15% mark.

    Based on the increased chances of the micros getting a Senate seat, I think that removes the chance of a double dissolution without reform to allow Above the Line preferential voting or something similar.

    Thanks for the blog, keep up the good work.

    1. Thanks AJ - I have revised how I estimate SA votes and removed the "fix" I previously had. After doing this, I got numbers similar to yours.
      Watch this space over the next few days for updates.