Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

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Friday, 6 September 2013

Queensland Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the sixth jurisdiction in my senate series – QLD.

Most likely elected Senate (QLD):

2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 GRN, 1 PUP

I am constantly updating my calculation of primary votes to allow for the latest polls, and this data will be updated during election day to allow for the latest poll data to be incorporated.

The Queensland Senate to be elected will be either a delectable mix of minor parties or a collective “unrepresentative swill”. Multiple parties have a chance of election – the final winners may as well be determined by lottery. But applying the appropriate methodology (see earlier post), we can attempt to determine the likelihood of each party being elected, starting with forecast primary votes.

Primary votes:
LNP:      36.7% (+/-2.7%)
ALP:      28.1% (+/-2.1%)
GRN:      9.7% (+/-1.5%)
Minor parties 25.5% comprising selected parties:
PUP:      7.4% (+/-2.4%)
KAP:      3.5% (+/-1.7%)
FF:      2.6% (+/-1.3%)
AFLP:      1.3% (+/-0.7%)
LDP:      1.3% (+/-0.7%)
DEM:      0.4% (+/-0.2%)
No Coal Seam Gas:      0.9% (+/-0.7%) (note the high variance)
Australian Independents:      0.2% (+/-0.1%)

Likelihood of election:
LNP: 2 elected, 9% chance of 3rd candidate being elected
ALP: 1 elected, 89% chance of 2nd candidate being elected
GRN: 68% likelihood of election
PUP: 44% likelihood
FF: 35%
KAP: 23%
AFLP: 18%
No CSG: 6%
AI: 5%
LDP, DEM:  < 3%

Ideological splits:
4 Left, 2 Right: 1% likely
3 Left, 1 Independent, 2 Right: 4% likely
3 Left, 3 Right: 55% likely
2 Left, 1 Independent, 3 Right: 7% likely
2 Left, 4 Right: 34% likely

With a shopping list of candidates, we have a “Pin the Tail on the Donkey (vote)” form of election. No fewer than 11 parties have a chance of winning a QLD Senate seat.

The complicating factor, from an analyst’s perspective, is Clive Palmer, who’s had a big push recently and gained a lot of traction in the imagination of the populace.

All 5 previous states analysed show a 3-3 Split so if the LNP is to make ground in the Senate it will have to do so in Queensland. However, this “gain”, if any is more likely to come from a Right micro party such as a famous ex-sportsman, a famous ex-musician and a rag-tag bunch of professional preference traders.

Queensland offers the potential for another undemocratic option. It is not unfeasible that the “Australian Independents” will poll 0.2% and have an outside chance of election. If this occurs, it is surely not the will of the people – it is the will of the preference traders.

Tonight, I will finish my state-by-state analysis. Tomorrow, I will make final updates in the afternoon based on all the final polls.

Summaries so far:
QLD: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 PUP
NT: 1 ALP, 1 LNP
TAS: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 3 LNP
WA: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 3 LNP
SA: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 1 XEN, 2 LNP
VIC: 1 GRN, 2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 FF
Running total: 5 GRN, 11 ALP, 1 XEN, 13 LNP, 1 FF, 1 PUP


  1. Replies
    1. In this scenario, avg of 1.7%, with a range of 0.9-2.6%. The fact my model gives 0 chance to the SXP implies 2.6% is just not enough vote to get it up in this state.

  2. 7 News Sydney put PUP at 9% in NSW last night, would expect it could be even higher in QLD. Question is how much Tony's Don't Vote for Minor Parties message in last two days will work

  3. My numbers have low PUP estimates. I intend on revising my estimates today, and following the Senate outcomes very closely tonight.